Aflac stock: Mizuho raises target but keeps Underperform rating

Mizuho raised its price target for Aflac on Monday, November 9, 2026, but kept an Underperform rating on the insurer. The move followed Aflac's mixed third-quarter report, in which stronger adjusted earnings contrasted with weaker revenue. Investing.com reported that Mizuho lifted the target from 107 to 112 US dollars.

Higher estimates, uneven operating picture

Mizuho raised its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share estimate by 9 percent to 7.70 US dollars. Its forecasts for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 increased by 1 percent each to 7.65 and 8.05 US dollars. The changes reflect the third-quarter headline beat and a narrower US discount to the wider group.

The quarterly picture remained mixed. Normalized third-quarter earnings per share came to 1.80 US dollars, matching consensus, while adjusted earnings per share reached 2.43 US dollars after actuarial assumption changes. Revenue was 3.27 billion US dollars, below the 4.11 billion US dollar consensus cited by Investing.com.

Mizuho expects the assumption review to modestly lower future benefit ratios in Japan and the United States, assuming no change in business mix. That potential improvement is balanced by weaker underlying demand: Japan's new premium equivalents continue to shrink, while US new premium equivalents growth remains in the lower half of Aflac's target range.

Capital actions remain central

Portfolio switch trades have added more than 80 million US dollars in annualized net investment income so far this year, according to the report. A planned cession of about 500 billion yen of cancer reserves to Aflac Re Bermuda is expected to release roughly 1 billion US dollars of capital.

The capital transaction could support shareholder returns and future investment, but Mizuho said earnings-per-share growth remains reliant on how that capital is deployed. For investors, the key tension is therefore between improved assumptions and capital flexibility on one side and shrinking premium equivalents on the other.

Aflac stock traded at 112.00 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 1:19 p.m. CET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.

Broader US equity sentiment remains relevant for insurers; follow the S&P 500 for the wider market backdrop.

More developments can be found in More news and analyses on Aflac stock.