BASF stock outlook rises as core businesses lift Q3 earnings

BASF raised its 2026 earnings outlook after reporting stronger third-quarter results on October 28, 2026. In its BASF release, the chemical company said sales and EBITDA before special items increased from the prior-year quarter, while all four core businesses contributed to the adjusted earnings gain.

Higher prices support quarterly growth

Third-quarter sales increased 14 percent to 16.4 billion euros from 14.3 billion euros a year earlier. BASF attributed the improvement mainly to a 12 percent contribution from higher prices and a 2 percent increase in volumes. Positive currency effects, particularly from the US dollar and Chinese renminbi, also supported sales.

EBITDA before special items rose 15 percent to 1.6 billion euros from 1.4 billion euros. The Chemicals, Nutrition and Care, Materials, and Industrial Solutions segments delivered substantial earnings increases that more than offset weaker results in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. The adjusted EBITDA margin remained at 10 percent.

Charges keep reported profit under pressure

The headline operating picture was less favorable after special items. EBITDA remained at 1.2 billion euros, while BASF recorded 437 million euros of special charges, mainly for restructuring at the Ludwigshafen site and a legal settlement in Care Chemicals. EBIT fell to a loss of 98 million euros from a profit of 232 million euros in the prior-year quarter. Net income declined to 155 million euros from 172 million euros, and reported earnings per share fell to 0.18 euros from 0.19 euros.

Adjusted earnings per share, which exclude special items and amortization of intangible assets, increased to 0.72 euros from 0.52 euros. Operating cash flow was 1.1 billion euros, down 275 million euros year over year as inventories absorbed 507 million euros of cash. Free cash flow nevertheless rose by 125 million euros to 523 million euros in the quarter.

Raised forecast sharpens investor focus

BASF now expects 2026 EBITDA before special items of 7.4 billion euros to 7.8 billion euros, compared with its previous range of 6.9 billion euros to 7.7 billion euros. The company left its free cash flow forecast unchanged at 1.5 billion euros to 2.3 billion euros and retained its existing macroeconomic assumptions, citing continuing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The raised outlook improves the earnings picture, but the gap between adjusted and reported profit keeps restructuring costs and cash conversion central to the investment case. For shareholders, the next test is whether stronger pricing and volume trends in the core businesses can offset pressure in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies while BASF continues its transformation program.

BASF stock traded at 53.51 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 10:37 CET on Monday, November 9, 2026, 1.42 percent below the Xetra close of Friday, November 6, 2026, at 54.28 euros. Investors can follow the real-time quote of BASF stock.

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