BHP stock: Copper output drops 19% as guidance holds

BHP Group's first-quarter copper production fell 19 percent year on year, but the miner kept its full-year production guidance unchanged. The operational review for the quarter ended September 30 was released on October 20 and carried by Refinitiv on TradingView.

Total copper production came to 400,700 tonnes, compared with 493,600 tonnes in the same quarter a year earlier. BHP cited planned lower concentrator feed grades, scheduled maintenance, severe weather in Chile, safety stoppages and a conveyor failure at Carrapateena. Production at Escondida, the group's largest copper asset, fell 23 percent on a 100 percent basis to 252,600 tonnes.

Guidance survives weaker copper output

BHP maintained its fiscal 2027 copper production target of 1.65 million to 1.80 million tonnes. Guidance for iron ore, steelmaking coal and energy coal also remained unchanged. The unchanged outlook indicates that management continues to expect the first-quarter disruptions and planned maintenance to be absorbed during the remaining quarters of the financial year.

Iron ore provided a counterweight. Group production rose 4 percent to 66.5 million tonnes, while Western Australia Iron Ore production increased 4 percent on BHP's equity basis to 64.3 million tonnes. On a 100 percent basis, WAIO produced 71.9 million tonnes. BHP said mine, rail and port performance was strong despite extensive planned maintenance, with records at both the mine and port.

Average realised copper prices were 53 percent higher than a year earlier at 7.01 US dollars per pound. That pricing improvement supported earnings potential, although the average realised iron ore price fell 9 percent to 76.27 US dollars per wet metric tonne. The figures are provisional and unaudited, according to the report.

Growth projects broaden the outlook

Alongside the production review, BHP highlighted its copper expansion pipeline and the development of potash. The company approved 0.8 billion US dollars of pre-commitment funding for engineering, permitting and execution readiness at the Escondida New Concentrator. At Olympic Dam in South Australia, BHP reported a new underground block-cave mineral resource of 10.73 billion tonnes grading 0.59 percent copper. The block-cave concept remains at an early assessment stage and has not been converted into an ore reserve.

Jansen Stage 1 in Canada was 87 percent complete and remained on track for first production in mid-2027. BHP sees the project as a new commodity pillar, while its copper strategy includes growth at Escondida, Copper South Australia and projects in the Americas. Management said the portfolio could support compound annual production growth of 3 to 4 percent through 2035, including roughly 5 percent annual copper growth.

Safety remains a material issue for investors. BHP reported fatalities involving employees at Escondida and Peak Downs during the quarter and said investigations were underway. The company said it was strengthening operational controls, while mining activities at affected operations were temporarily suspended.

The real-time quote of BHP stock was 72.00 euros at Lang & Schwarz on Friday, October 30, 2026, at 09:32 a.m. Berlin time.

European investors are also watching the S&P/ASX 200 market environment as commodity prices and global growth expectations shape the mining sector.

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