Bupa Arabia stock faces a 16.8 percent Q3 profit forecast drop

Bupa Arabia stock (ISIN SA1210540914) had a market capitalization of SAR 21.7 billion on Tadawul on October 8, 2026. The immediate earnings signal is mixed: Argaam reported on October 6, 2026, that Yaqeen Capital projected Bupa Arabia's Q3 2026 profit at SAR 303 million, a 16.8 percent year-over-year decline.

Forecasts point in different directions

The estimate is not uniform across research houses. Argaam reported on October 5, 2026, that SICO Bank projected Q3 profit of SAR 375 million, up 3 percent from the year-earlier quarter. The SAR 72 million gap between the two forecasts makes the upcoming result particularly important for assessing medical-cost pressure and margin recovery.

H1 profit provides a stronger base

Bupa Arabia's latest reported interim figure was more constructive. Argaam lists H1 2026 profit at SAR 694.1 million, up 4 percent year over year, with Q2 profit at SAR 306.8 million. That half-year result gives the market a recent operating benchmark, while the Q3 forecasts test whether earnings momentum continued into the second half.

Analyst sentiment remains more positive than the near-term forecast split. MarketScreener shows an Outperform consensus from 7 analysts and an average target of SAR 181.83. That average target lies 25.6 percent above the October 8 price of SAR 144.80.

Stock trades below yearly high

Bupa Arabia was trading at SAR 144.80 on Tadawul on October 8, 2026, at 10:29 a.m. AST, down SAR 1.80, or 1.23 percent, from the prior close. The session range was SAR 144.30 to SAR 146.70, while the 52-week range was SAR 131.40 to SAR 200.00 and volume stood at 69,293 shares.

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