Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists shift RBA call to 4.85% for CBA stock

Published on 10/28/2026 at 09:28 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

CommBank now expects a fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% after its October 28 inflation analysis. CBA stock costs EUR 103.09 on October 28, 2026.

Rate call and inflation pressure

On October 28, 2026, CommBank economists forecast a 4.85 percent RBA cash rate in November.
September-quarter trimmed mean inflation reached 1.00 percent and annual trimmed mean inflation reached 3.70 percent.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock trades at EUR 103.09 at 9:20 a.m. CET at Lang & Schwarz on October 28, 2026.

CBA, AU000000CBA7, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (AU000000CBA7) economists now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift its cash rate to 4.85 percent in November, a change reported by CommBank on October 28, 2026. The call would make the increase the fifth rate rise of 2026 and gives CBA stock a fresh macroeconomic catalyst.

What changed in October?

On October 19, 2026, Commonwealth Bank economists still expected the RBA to hold the cash rate at 4.60 percent in November, according to CommBank. The October 28 update therefore changes the forecast by 0.25 percentage points, with the bank citing the RBA's stronger inflation warnings and tighter domestic capacity.

The latest Australian data reinforced the shift. September-quarter trimmed mean inflation rose 1.00 percent, while the annual rate reached 3.70 percent, compared with CommBank's earlier forecast of 3.60 percent, according to the bank's October 28 analysis. Market pricing for a November hike stood at 90 percent in the same analysis.

Why the outlook matters

Commonwealth Bank expects higher rates to weigh on growth, home prices and employment in the months ahead. That creates a mixed operating backdrop for the bank: higher rates can support lending income, while weaker housing activity and softer household spending can pressure loan demand and credit conditions.

The company enters the debate after reporting fiscal 2026 cash net profit after tax of AUD 11.00 billion, up 7.00 percent, and a fully franked dividend of AUD 5.05 per share at its October 14, 2026 annual meeting, according to CommBank. The earnings base is strong, but the new rate call points to slower economic conditions as an important counterweight.

Next policy date

The RBA's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for November 3, 2026, according to the October 28 CommBank analysis. Investors will then be able to compare the decision with the bank's new 4.85 percent forecast.

Stock price in euros

Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock was trading at EUR 103.09 at Lang & Schwarz on October 28, 2026 at 9:20 a.m. CET. The quote was in the Xetra trading phase for German investors.

The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock.