Evonik stock faces a softer 2027 outlook after Jefferies downgrade

Jefferies downgraded Evonik from Buy to Hold on Wednesday, November 11, as the brokerage saw fading support from Middle East supply disruptions. The analysis, reported by Investing.com, also lowered its 2027 EBITDA forecast by 9 percent to below 2 billion euros.

Evonik stock traded at 20.98 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 17:35 CET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, 0.10 percent above the Xetra close of Thursday, November 12, 2026.

What has changed for investors

Jefferies raised its price target to 21 euros from 20 euros, but the rating change points to a more guarded view of the earnings path. The brokerage said methionine prices had fallen 43 percent from their April peak in China, 31 percent in Europe and 15 percent in the United States after supply disruptions had supported prices.

European gas prices are at their highest level since November 2022, according to the report. Evonik has significant exposure to Europe, the Middle East and Africa, which account for 49 percent of sales and include energy-intensive production sites.

Returns and BASF remain in focus

Jefferies expects Evonik's return on capital employed to reach 8.9 percent in 2029, below the company's 11 percent target. Its forecast assumes about 200 million euros of operating profit improvement and a 14 percent reduction in capital employed.

BASF's interest adds a second valuation driver. Reuters has reported that Evonik rejected approaches at 22.15 euros and 24 euros per share, while Jefferies considers an offer above 27 euros increasingly difficult to justify because German site agreements limit potential synergies.

Fourth-quarter results and 2027 guidance are scheduled for March 4, 2027. The figures will show whether pricing, volumes and efficiency measures can offset weaker support from supply disruptions.

German equities are monitored against the DAX as the broad domestic market gauge.

More news and analyses on Evonik stock.