HelloFresh cuts 2026 outlook: HelloFresh stock sits 52.62 percent below target

Published on 10/06/2026 at 17:17 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Financial year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook is EUR 350 million-370 million. HelloFresh stock last stood at EUR 2.37 on October 6, 2026, versus EUR 7.92.

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HelloFresh stock last stood at EUR 2.37 on Xetra on October 6, 2026 at 2:34 p.m. CEST, placing the price 52.62 percent below Berenberg's EUR 5.00 target. Berenberg cut that target from EUR 9.00 on September 28, 2026, while retaining its Buy rating, according to finanzen.net.

2026 outlook takes another cut

On September 24, 2026, HelloFresh lowered its financial year 2026 constant-currency revenue outlook to a decline of 9 percent to 11 percent, from a previous range of 3 percent to 6 percent. The company also reduced adjusted EBITDA guidance to EUR 350 million-370 million from EUR 375 million-425 million, according to Yahoo Finance.

The downgrade followed weaker new-customer acquisition during the back-to-school period, which the company linked to lower third-quarter marketing spending. For the third quarter of 2026, HelloFresh projected constant-currency revenue down 11 percent to 12 percent, compared with a 6.8 percent consensus decline, while adjusted EBITDA was expected at EUR 45 million-55 million versus EUR 57.20 million consensus, Yahoo Finance reported.

Analyst target still above price

Berenberg's September 28, 2026 note kept a Buy rating but lowered the target by EUR 4.00, a 44.44 percent reduction from EUR 9.00 to EUR 5.00. The bank cited weak customer growth and a more cautious view of 2027, according to finanzen.net.

The target gap remains material even after the reduction: EUR 5.00 is 110.59 percent above the Xetra quote of EUR 2.37. That comparison puts customer acquisition and marketing efficiency at the center of the investment case, rather than the rating label alone.

Results date is November 5

HelloFresh's investor-relations page lists November 5, 2026, for publication of the third-quarter statement and the related call. The date gives investors a defined checkpoint for testing whether the projected 11 percent to 12 percent revenue decline and EUR 45 million-55 million adjusted EBITDA range match reported results, according to HelloFresh.

Stock remains near yearly low

The last Xetra quote of EUR 2.37 on October 6, 2026 at 2:34 p.m. CEST was EUR 0.21 above the 52-week low of EUR 2.16 and EUR 5.55 below the 52-week high of EUR 7.92. Market capitalization stood at EUR 336.6 million on October 6, 2026. Price source: substitute price Xetra, Lang & Schwarz without data set.