HelloFresh stock fell 9.83 percent after outlook cut

Published on 09/28/2026 at 11:28 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

HelloFresh stock faces a 9.00 percent to 11.00 percent revenue decline forecast for 2026 after weaker customer acquisition. Q2 revenue reached EUR 1.5 billion, down 7.80 percent.

Offene Versandbox mit frischem Gemüse, Kräutern und Kühlpacks auf Holztisch — Fotorealistische Aufnahme einer offenen braunen Versandbox mit frischen Zutaten auf einem Holztisch — Motiv für HelloFresh SE (ISIN DE000A161408), dem führenden Meal-Kit-Lieferdienst Berlins, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

HelloFresh stock (ISIN DE000A161408) closed at EUR 2.29 on Xetra on September 25, 2026, down 9.83 percent for the session. The sharp move followed the company's September 24 guidance cut, which pushed the 2026 revenue outlook well below the previous range and market expectations.

Guidance falls below consensus

According to finanzen.net, HelloFresh expects constant-currency revenue to decline 9.00 percent to 11.00 percent in fiscal year 2026. The earlier guidance called for a decline at the lower end of a 3.00 percent to 6.00 percent range, while the cited consensus expected a 6.90 percent decline.

The company also lowered adjusted EBITDA guidance to EUR 350.00 million to EUR 370.00 million from EUR 375.00 million to EUR 425.00 million. The new range sits below the EUR 375.60 million consensus cited in the September 24 announcement, turning customer acquisition into the central operating issue for the second half.

Q2 shows resilient margins

The latest reported quarter provides a more mixed picture. In Q2 2026, HelloFresh generated EUR 1.5 billion of revenue, a 7.80 percent constant-currency decline, while adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 120.60 million with a 7.80 percent margin, according to the Yahoo Finance transcript dated August 13, 2026.

Meal Kit adjusted EBITDA was EUR 167.00 million in Q2 at a 15.10 percent margin, compared with EUR 184.80 million and a 15.20 percent margin in Q2 2025. That comparison shows why the downgrade is primarily a growth and conversion problem rather than a complete collapse in the core segment's margin structure.

Analyst target remains above price

wallstreetONLINE reported on September 25, 2026, that JPMorgan cut its HelloFresh price target from EUR 3.30 to EUR 2.70 while retaining a Neutral rating. The revised target still stands above the September 25 Xetra close, but the cut reflects the weaker revenue path and reduced earnings visibility.

Xetra shares mark the latest close

HelloFresh shares closed at EUR 2.29 on Xetra at 5:35 p.m. CEST on September 25, 2026, after falling 9.83 percent. HelloFresh lists November 5, 2026, as the publication date for its Q3 2026 quarterly statement on its investor relations website.