Jefferies sees 3.00 percent Q3 VONB drop for AIA stock

Published on 10/14/2026 at 12:25 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Jefferies forecasts a 3.00 percent third-quarter VONB decline for 2026. AIA stock was at EUR 8.31 in trading on October 14, 2026.

Growth outlook and reporting date

Jefferies forecasts a 3.00 percent decline in third-quarter Value of New Business for 2026.
First-half Value of New Business rose 10.00 percent to USD 3.212 billion on August 20, 2026.
AIA stock traded at EUR 8.31 at 12:18 p.m. CEST at Lang & Schwarz on October 14, 2026.

AIA, HK0000069689, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

AIA (HK0000069689) faces a 3.00 percent expected contraction in third-quarter Value of New Business, according to Insurance Asia on October 13, 2026. Jefferies kept its full-year 2026 basic earnings per share estimate at 78.94 cents, giving investors a clear contrast between a difficult quarterly comparison and the unchanged annual outlook.

Jefferies flags a tougher quarter

The expected third-quarter decline follows strong performance in the comparable period of 2025, while Jefferies expects stronger fourth-quarter growth as the comparison base becomes less demanding. The research firm also said consensus forecasts put 2026 earnings per share 4.00 percent above earlier estimates and 2027 earnings per share 3.00 percent higher, while 2027 revenue expectations were 2.00 percent lower.

Half-year figures remain strong

AIA reported Value of New Business of USD 3.212 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 10.00 percent year over year, according to GMT Eight on August 20, 2026. After-tax operating profit reached USD 4.163 billion, up 13.00 percent per share, while annualized operating return on shareholder equity rose to 17.50 percent, an increase of 200 basis points.

The chronology shows how the outlook has developed. AIA reported first-quarter 2026 Value of New Business growth of 13.00 percent on April 30, 2026, published its USD 3.212 billion first-half result on August 20, 2026, and then received the 3.00 percent third-quarter forecast from Jefferies on October 13, 2026. The latest signal is therefore a moderation in quarterly growth, not a reversal of the first-half expansion.

What comes next for AIA

AIA proposed an interim dividend of 53.90 Hong Kong cents per share for the first half of 2026, a 10.00 percent increase, according to GMT Eight. The next earnings report is scheduled for December 2, 2026, according to Investing.com.

Stock price and investor reference

AIA was trading at EUR 8.31 at Lang & Schwarz on October 14, 2026 at 12:18 p.m. CEST. The Hong Kong listing was quoted at HKD 72.75 on October 14, 2026, with a 52-week range of HKD 68.00 to HKD 92.15 and market capitalization of HKD 752.6 billion, according to Investing.com. The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of AIA stock.