Morningstar flags weak third-quarter outlook for Volkswagen stock before October 29

Published on 10/22/2026 at 09:47 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Morningstar flags weak third-quarter sales and margins. Volkswagen stock costs EUR 68.47 on October 22, 2026, 0.91 percent below the Xetra close of EUR 69.10.

Earnings risk and valuation

Morningstar expects global volumes to fall 14 percent in the third quarter on October 22, 2026.
Volkswagen reported EUR 158.1 billion in first-half revenue and EUR 5.9 billion in operating profit.
Volkswagen stock trades at EUR 68.47 at 9:38 a.m. CEST on October 22, 2026, 0.91 percent below the October 21, 2026 Xetra close.
RBC Capital Markets cut its target from EUR 120.00 to EUR 115.00 on October 15, 2026.

Flatlay mit Autoschlüssel, Lederhandschuh, Maßband und Karosserie-Skizze — Volkswagen AG Vz (DE0007664039) – Flatlay zeigt Autoschlüssel, Lederhandschuh und Karosserie-Skizze auf Werkstattboden, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Volkswagen AG (ISIN DE0007664039) was trading at EUR 68.47 at Lang & Schwarz on October 22, 2026 at 9:38 a.m. CEST, down 0.91 percent versus the Xetra close of October 21, 2026 at EUR 69.10. Morningstar said on October 22, 2026 that falling sales and margin pressure would weigh on the third-quarter report due October 29. The key issue is whether the group can protect profitability while electric vehicles expand in its European order book.

Why October 29 matters

Morningstar expects Volkswagen global volumes to be 14 percent lower year over year in the third quarter and China volumes to fall 39 percent. The analyst also noted that 40 percent of the European order book consists of battery-electric vehicles, 18 percent higher than at the end of 2025. That mix supports regulatory compliance but remains margin dilutive, according to the October 22 analysis.

Volkswagen's first-half figures show the pressure already visible in the accounts. The company reported EUR 158.1 billion of revenue for the first half of 2026, versus EUR 158.4 billion a year earlier, while operating profit fell 11.6 percent to EUR 5.9 billion and the operating margin was 3.8 percent, according to its investor information.

Three events shaped the setup

On July 24, 2026, Volkswagen reported a 3.8 percent first-half operating margin through its investor page. On September 18, 2026, the company updated its 2026 operating return on sales outlook to up to 1 percent, as listed in the Volkswagen investor calendar. On October 12, 2026, Volkswagen said it had delivered 6.0 million vehicles through September.

Analyst targets remain higher

RBC Capital Markets cut its Volkswagen target from EUR 120.00 to EUR 115.00 on October 15, 2026, while keeping an Outperform rating, according to finanzen.net. The report cited difficult business conditions in China. Jefferies kept a Buy rating and a EUR 120.00 target on October 14, 2026, also reported by finanzen.net.

Reporting dates are set

Volkswagen's next reporting date is October 29, 2026, when it will publish its January to September results. The investor calendar also lists the UBS European Conference for November 11, 2026, giving investors a second scheduled point for management commentary.

Stock stays below analyst targets

The quotation leaves a wide gap to the published targets, but the upcoming report must first show whether cost pressure is stabilizing. Volkswagen was trading at EUR 68.47 at Lang & Schwarz on October 22, 2026 at 9:38 a.m. CEST, down 0.91 percent versus the Xetra close of October 21, 2026 at EUR 69.10. The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of Volkswagen stock.