Oriental Securities keeps Buy for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory stock

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (CNE000000DH5) was assigned a CNY 149.53 target and a maintained Buy rating by Oriental Securities in a report dated September 23, 2026. The recommendation came as the baijiu producer worked through weaker first-half operating conditions.

Target rests on channel recovery

According to Futubull, Oriental Securities expected inventory replenishment around the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays to support retail sales in the third quarter of 2026. The report also said channel inventories were expected to trend lower sequentially, while distributor support remained part of the company's effort to stabilize profitability.

The same September 23 report forecast net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 9.6 billion for 2026, CNY 10.6 billion for 2027 and CNY 12.2 billion for 2028. It assigned a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times and identified slower consumer recovery, weaker expansion outside Shanxi and food safety incidents as risks.

Weak first half sets the baseline

Aurelian reported CNY 210.0 billion of revenue for the first half of 2026, down 12.18 percent from the year-earlier period. Net profit declined 24.29 percent to CNY 64.0 billion, while gross margin stood at 75.40 percent and net margin at 30.74 percent.

The earnings mix makes the analyst thesis dependent on stabilization rather than immediate acceleration. Second-quarter revenue fell 17.70 percent year over year to CNY 61.0 billion, and net profit dropped 43.10 percent to CNY 11.0 billion, compared with first-quarter declines of 9.70 percent in revenue and 19.00 percent in net profit.

Shanghai quote and valuation

On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the stock was last quoted at CNY 115.10 at 3:24 p.m. CST on October 8, 2026, down 0.43 percent from the CNY 115.60 prior close. Its 52-week range was CNY 103.64 to CNY 203.58, placing the quote 43.46 percent below the high and 11.06 percent above the low.

Market capitalization was CNY 140.4 billion on October 8, 2026, while the company traded at a reported price-to-earnings ratio of 13.80 times. The gap between that multiple and Oriental Securities' 19-times 2026 valuation assumption is the central point of the current research case, while the earnings decline remains the counter-factor.

Company information and stock details are available on the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory stock topic page.