Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG



11.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE



     Company Name:                Cantourage Group SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A3DSV01



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 10
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr



Q3 review: Quality over quantity; FY guidance at lower ends



Sales came in at EUR 19.9m (-2% yoy, -9% qoq), while EBITDA swung to EUR 1.9m
from EUR -2.2m in Q3'25 (Q2: EUR 2.9m). The margin improved by 20.5pp yoy to
9.5%, yet the weakest of the year (Q1: 10.6%, Q2: 13.1%). Besides German
price pressure, this was due to the regulatory transition in the UK, which
cost sales in a higher-margin market. Gross margin almost doubled to 35.3%
(-1.1pp qoq). For 9M, sales fell 17% yoy to EUR 62.3m, yet EBITDA rose 74% to
EUR 6.8m (10.9% margin vs. 5.2%). In short, Cantourage keeps choosing price
over volume in an increasingly crowded market.



Germany: price pressure reaches the premium shelf. Domestic sales eased to EUR
9.5m (Q2: EUR 10.1m). Falling flower prices and more competitors weigh on the
market, and even premium strains are no longer fully shielded. Offers at
around EUR 2/g are in our view hard to reconcile with regulatory requirements
and should not prove sustainable in the mid-term.



UK and Poland: soft Q3, better set-up for Q4. UK sales slipped to EUR 9.3m
(Q2: EUR 9.6m) as the market adjusted to a new rule allowing only EU-GMP
certified products. In Q3, this weighed on volumes and margin, as products
without EU-GMP certification could no longer be supplied. From Q4, however,
the rule should work in Cantourage's favour: with three certified partners,
Cantourage is well placed as non-compliant rivals drop out. In Poland, sales
halved to EUR 1.1m (Q2: EUR 2.1m) with avg. prices down 25% and Cantourage
deliberately shipped lower volumes, protecting margins rather than share.
Together, both markets still contribute more than half of group sales.



Broader portfolio reduces reliance on third-party flowers. The own brand
gramz. (launched in July, >EUR 0.5m sales in Q2) is sourced outright instead
of via revenue share, leaving a higher margin and more pricing control with
Cantourage. In September, a crude extract and a distillate ("Blue Dream")
followed, allowing pharmacies to compound new dosage forms such as gummies
or inhalables, partly for self-paying patients. Distillates and extracts are
already growing particularly strongly. On supply, All Nations, Green Karat
and LOT420 have completed EU-GMP certification with Cantourage, coming with
five-year exclusivity and easing regulatory burdens (e.g. in UK).



Guidance at the lower ends, still demanding. Management confirmed the FY26
guidance of EUR 85-95m sales and EUR 10-12m adj. EBITDA, but now points towards
the lower ends. Reaching EUR 85m and EUR 10m requires Q4 sales EUR 22.7m (+14%
qoq) and adj. EBITDA of EUR 3.2m (c. 14% margin), which looks challenging
given Q3 trends, even with UK tailwinds; eNuW EUR 84.2m sales and EUR 9.7m adj.
EBITDA.



FY25 group report and new CEO still outstanding. Following the IFRS switch
decided in October, Cantourage had promised the audited FY25 group accounts
with an HGB/IFRS reconciliation for early November. Both are still missing,
so today's yoy figures rest on restated but unaudited prior-year numbers.
Likewise, a successor for CEO Philip Schetter, who announced his early
departure in September, has yet to be named. Importantly, he remains in
office until then.



In sum, Q3 underpins that sacrificing volume to protect margins was the
right decision in light of the significantly declining prices (notable
oversupply). With headwinds in the UK already easing, recent EU-GMP
certifications and a broadening product portfolio, the group should in our
view be able to return to growth in 2027. The group's growing net cash
position (EUR 10.8m at the end of Sept.) is seen to support this. BUY with a
new EUR 10 PT (old: EUR 10.5) based on DCF.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2432320 11.11.2026 CET/CEST