Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG



11.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG



     Company Name:                Flughafen Wien AG
     ISIN:                        AT00000VIE62



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 59
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Q3 preview: Malta to cushion softer Vienna traffic, chg.



Flughafen Wien will report Q3 results on 19 November. We expect cost
discipline and continued growth in Malta to cushion weaker traffic and lower
airport charges in Vienna. The results should reinforce our view that FY26
guidance remains too cautious, even with a subdued winter already embedded
in our estimates.



Malta continues to cushion Vienna's traffic decline. Reported group
passenger numbers fell c. 1% yoy to 13.1m in Q3. Vienna declined c. 6% yoy
to 9.2m, reflecting less low-cost carrier capacity and Middle East
disruption. Malta grew c. 13% yoy to 3.5m, supported by additional airline
capacity. Together with Vienna's lower airport charges, this should lead to
Q3 sales of EUR 308m, down 4.1% yoy (eNuW).



Cost discipline should protect profitability. EBITDA is expected to come in
at EUR 160m, down 3.3% yoy, implying a 0.4pp margin improvement to 51.9%.
Lower staffing levels should continue to cushion wage inflation. The benefit
was already visible in Q2, when personnel expenses fell 2.8% yoy. Malta's
higher traffic should provide additional operating leverage. Net profit
after minorities is seen at EUR 86.3m, down 5.5% yoy.



The guidance still implies an excessive Q4 slowdown. Against our 9M EBITDA
estimate of EUR 387m, the EUR 425m full-year target leaves just EUR 38m for Q4.
This implies a 58% decline versus Q4 25, adjusted for the EUR 55.9m
third-runway charge (Q4 25 one-off). Our new FY26 EBITDA estimate of EUR 440m
implies EUR 53m in Q4, c. 40% above the guidance-implied level, yet still
conservatively down 42% yoy on an underlying basis.



Resilient demand should cushion winter capacity cuts. Austrian Airlines' 3%
Q3 passenger growth across its network despite higher fares highlights
underlying demand strength. Higher fuel costs have prompted the airline to
cut network-wide winter capacity by 5%, with Ryanair also reducing its group
winter plans. These adjustments fit the subdued winter already assumed in
the forecasts. FWAG may need to offer higher incentives to retain airline
capacity in Vienna, tempering group EBITDA margin expansion in 2027e (9M
26e: +1.6pp yoy, eNuW). In Malta, where winter frequency additions largely
offset reductions, structural demand growth should support higher seat load
factors and further passenger growth.



The 2027 recovery has drivers beyond passenger growth. Inflation-linked
tariff adjustments should support revenue after the 2026 reset. T3 South
remains on time and on budget for a Q2 2027 opening, expanding Vienna's
retail and gastronomy space by c. 50% and adding new lounges. This should
lift hospitality revenue per passenger (eNuW: +17% yoy in 2027e). Meanwhile,
flight-tax relief remains undecided, with Finance Minister Marterbauer
ruling out unfunded abolition on 9 November. Political support for a
reduction is growing. Any cut would improve Vienna's cost competitiveness.



The high-quality infrastructure case remains intact. FWAG owns its Vienna
infrastructure outright, with no concession expiry. Aviation, retail and
property income provide a diversified earnings base with long-term exposure
to growing air travel. Net cash of EUR 265m and an equity ratio of 72% at H1
provide financial flexibility to fund expansion and dividends (c. 3.4%
yield).



Action: FY26 EPS raised by c. 2% on better traffic assumptions and 2027 D&A
slightly increased for T3 South's expected Q2 opening.



BUY, with unchanged PT at EUR 59, based on DCF.



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For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2432322 11.11.2026 CET/CEST