Palantir stock faces a demanding test with Q3 results ahead

Published on 11/02/2026 at 13:09 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Palantir stock enters its third-quarter report with revenue expectations above management's forecast. U.S. commercial growth is the key test.

What investors are watching

Palantir is scheduled to release third-quarter results after the U.S. market close on November 2.
Analysts expect revenue of about USD 2.18 billion, slightly above the company forecast.
Investors are likely to focus on U.S. commercial growth and the implied fourth-quarter outlook.

Palantir, US69608A1088, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Palantir Technologies is due to publish its third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Monday, November 2. The release covers the quarter ended September 30, while the management webcast is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern time, according to INDmoney.

Palantir's Q3 revenue guidance stands at USD 2.160 billion to USD 2.164 billion. The analyst consensus cited by INDmoney is about USD 2.18 billion, or roughly USD 18 million above the midpoint of management's range. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected at about USD 0.41, compared with USD 0.21 in the year-earlier quarter.

Growth expectations remain demanding

The forecast would imply revenue growth of about 85% from USD 1.181 billion in Q3 2025 and sequential growth of roughly 12.6% from the USD 1.935 billion reported for the second quarter. A modest beat against consensus would therefore need to be read alongside the outlook for the next quarter, rather than in isolation.

Palantir's previous quarter raised the bar for the report. Second-quarter U.S. commercial revenue reached USD 764 million, up 149% year over year, while U.S. government revenue rose 90% to USD 809 million, according to the figures summarized by INDmoney. Companywide net dollar retention stood at 157%, and the trailing-12-month customer count for U.S. commercial customers was 653.

The commercial business is central to the investment case because Palantir's full-year guidance calls for U.S. commercial revenue of at least USD 3.424 billion, representing growth of at least 134%. Investors will want evidence that artificial intelligence deployments are converting into recurring customer spending as the comparison base grows.

The fourth-quarter outlook matters most

Palantir's current full-year revenue guidance is USD 8.150 billion to USD 8.158 billion, with adjusted free cash flow guidance of USD 4.5 billion to USD 4.7 billion. INDmoney calculates an implied fourth-quarter revenue requirement of about USD 2.424 billion using the existing midpoint, first-half revenue and the previous Q3 guidance midpoint. That calculation is not a separately issued company forecast.

The key distinction after the release will be whether a higher full-year target reflects revenue already earned in the third quarter or lifts the implied fourth-quarter run rate. A stronger forward outlook would provide more evidence that demand is expanding beyond a single exceptional quarter.

Profit quality is another focus. Palantir guided to adjusted operating profit of USD 1.292 billion to USD 1.296 billion for Q3, implying a margin close to 60% at the midpoint. INDmoney also noted that the company had flagged higher expenses linked to hiring, product work and marketing. Investors may therefore compare revenue growth with operating profit, cash generation and dilution from equity compensation.

Palantir stock traded at 166.30 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 13:05 CET on Monday, November 2, 2026.

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