Saab stock outlook turns positive as S&P lifts growth forecasts

Saab stock traded at 56.82 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 10:52 CET on Thursday, November 12, 2026. The Swedish defense group's credit outlook is also moving in a more supportive direction after S&P Global Ratings raised its assessment.

Positive outlook follows strong growth

In a report dated Tuesday, November 10, S&P revised Saab AB's outlook to positive from stable and affirmed the company's BBB+ rating. The rating agency said Saab continues to show strong operating performance, with growth in its backlog, revenue and profitability while maintaining a strong balance sheet. The report was published by S&P Global Ratings.

S&P expects Saab's revenue to reach almost SEK 100 billion in 2026, compared with SEK 79 billion in 2025. That forecast is SEK 10 billion above the agency's previous base case. Revenue could rise to SEK 120 billion in 2027, according to the report, which would mark more than 20 percent annual top-line growth for a fourth consecutive year.

Backlog supports production expansion

The agency's forecast is underpinned by Saab's SEK 364 billion order backlog at the end of the third quarter. S&P said the backlog provides revenue visibility for the next three to four years and highlighted demand for GlobalEye, Giraffe radar, Gripen E, German fleet renewal and Polish submarines.

Production capacity is a central part of the outlook. S&P expects Saab to increase GlobalEye output from approximately two aircraft per year to six by around 2030. It also sees annual Gripen production capacity rising from 15 aircraft to between 25 and 30.

The agency said a future upgrade could follow within six to 12 months if Saab continues to deliver on its backlog, improves margins to about 15 percent and keeps adjusted debt to EBITDA well below 1.5 times. S&P also expects free operating cash flow of SEK 5 billion to SEK 6 billion per year in 2026 and 2027.

Credit strengths and investor risks

Saab's international expansion supports the diversification case. S&P said 79 percent of the existing backlog is attributable to international markets, up from 73 percent in December 2025. New facilities in the United States and India are intended to expand missile, ground-combat, submarine and aircraft production.

The agency also identified constraints. Saab remains smaller than major rated aerospace and defense peers, while Sweden accounted for about 41 percent of sales in 2025. A weaker rating could result if operating challenges depress profitability or cash generation, or if debt-funded acquisitions or shareholder returns push adjusted leverage above 1.5 times.

For investors, the positive outlook strengthens the credit narrative around Saab's order-driven growth, but the next test remains execution: converting the backlog into higher deliveries and margins while expanding capacity without weakening financial discipline.

European defense shares remain sensitive to government procurement, capacity investment and shifts in security policy; follow the OMXS30 market environment for the broader Swedish equity context.

More company-specific developments are collected in More news and analyses on Saab stock.