Shell stock raises gas outlook after refining margin jump

Published on 10/07/2026 at 13:02 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Shell stock's Q3 update set refining margin at USD 42 a barrel on October 7, up from USD 24 in Q2. Integrated Gas output was guided to 740,000-780,000 boe per day from 631,000.

Aquarell Rotterdamer Hafen mit LNG-Tanker, Pastelltöne, weiche impressionistische Pinselführung — Shell plc GB00BP6MXD84: Aquarellbild des Rotterdamer Hafens mit LNG-Tanker in weichen Pastelltönen, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Shell stock (ISIN GB00BP6MXD84) was trading at GBp 3,661.00 on the LSE on October 7, 2026 at 7:34 a.m. London time, up 0.27 percent from the prior close. The company raised its third-quarter Integrated Gas production outlook as refining economics strengthened, according to Morningstar on October 7, 2026.

Refining margin jumps to USD 42

Shell's indicative third-quarter refining margin reached USD 42 per barrel, compared with USD 24 in the second quarter and USD 11.6 a year earlier. That gives the refining business a clear numerical advantage over both comparison periods, although chemicals margins moved in the opposite direction.

The indicative chemicals margin fell to USD 208 per tonne from USD 270 per tonne in the second quarter, while remaining above USD 160 per tonne a year earlier. The contrast makes the product mix important for the results due on October 29.

Gas production outlook rises

Integrated Gas production was guided to 740,000-780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the third quarter, versus 631,000 in the second quarter and an earlier range of 570,000-630,000. The Spec published Shell's October 7, 2026 update, which linked the outlook to the ARC Resources acquisition completed in September.

Upstream production was forecast at 1.735 million-1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 1.824 million in the second quarter. Marketing adjusted earnings were expected to weaken on-quarter, creating a counterweight to the stronger refining and gas outlook.

Analysts see limited upside

MarketBeat reported a Hold consensus from 19 analysts on October 7, 2026, with 11 Hold ratings and 8 Buy ratings. The average twelve-month target was USD 106.08, while the high and low targets were USD 122.40 and USD 90.00.

The latest quarter provides a substantial operating base for that debate. Shell reported adjusted Q2 2026 earnings of USD 9.8 billion and more than USD 21 billion of operating cash flow in its Q2 results released on July 30, 2026, according to Shell.

Shell stock remains near its yearly high

Shell stock's October 7, 2026 price of GBp 3,661.00 was below the 52-week high of GBp 3,681.50 and above the low of GBp 2,554.00. The LSE listing had a market capitalization of GBP 208.5 billion and trading volume of 309,214 shares at the quoted time.