VALE, US91912E1055

Vale stock holds 2026 guidance as iron ore weighs on Q3

Published on 11/03/2026 at 14:41 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Vale stock faces weaker iron ore economics after third-quarter EBITDA fell 20 percent. Copper and nickel operations kept the 2026 outlook intact.

Vale balances iron ore pressure

Iron ore production fell 6 percent year over year, while sales increased 0.3 percent.
Copper and nickel operations gained momentum, with both production outlooks pointing to the upper half of their ranges.
Management expects operational improvements to support a stronger finish to 2026.

VALE, US91912E1055, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Vale's third-quarter results showed a sharp split across its metals portfolio. Iron ore earnings came under pressure from lower realized prices and higher external costs, while copper and nickel operations gained momentum. The company kept its 2026 production guidance intact.

In its 3Q26 Quarterly Results, Vale reported Proforma EBITDA of 3.5 billion US dollars for the July-to-September period, down 20 percent from a year earlier and 14 percent from the second quarter. The decline was mainly linked to weaker iron ore fines prices, a stronger Brazilian real and higher bunker costs.

The average realized iron ore fines price fell 10 percent year over year and quarter over quarter to 85.1 US dollars per tonne. Iron ore C1 cash costs rose 12 percent year over year to 23.1 US dollars per tonne, while all-in costs climbed 21 percent to 60.4 US dollars per tonne.

Base metals offset part of pressure

Iron ore production dropped 6 percent year over year, but sales increased 0.3 percent as Vale sold inventory accumulated in earlier periods. Pellet production rose 7 percent. The company attributed the lower iron ore output mainly to reduced run-of-mine availability at Serra Norte, partly offset by a quarterly production record at Serra Sul and additional volumes from the Capanema and Vargem Grande projects.

Vale Base Metals provided a counterweight. Realized copper prices increased to 15,314 US dollars per tonne, up 56 percent year over year, while nickel sales rose 16.1 percent. Copper sales were lower because of the planned Sossego SAG mill rebuild, but management said copper and nickel production remained on track for the upper half of their 2026 guidance ranges.

CEO Gustavo Pimenta said the company's freight strategy and hedging program helped protect margins in a dynamic market. Vale also highlighted the Serra Sul +20 project and the Compact Crushing project, which are intended to improve S11D performance. The company said October daily production at Serra Norte was already 15 percent higher, supporting its expectation of a stronger finish to the year.

Guidance remains unchanged

Vale reaffirmed all 2026 production targets and said it remained confident of reaching the lower end of its iron ore guidance. Full-year capital expenditure is expected near the lower end of the 5.4 billion to 5.7 billion US dollar range. Recurring free cash flow reached 1.4 billion US dollars, while total free cash flow was 2.2 billion US dollars.

The real-time quote of Vale stock was 10.20 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 14:31 CET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.