Vale stock holds 2026 guidance as Q3 EBITDA falls 20%

Vale released its third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, showing a sharp profitability setback but no change to its full-year production outlook. According to Vale's Q3 2026 results, proforma EBITDA fell 20% year over year to US$3.5 billion. The decline was driven mainly by lower realized iron ore prices, the stronger Brazilian real and higher bunker costs.

Iron ore pressure weighs on earnings

Vale's average realized iron ore fines price fell 10% from both the previous quarter and the year-earlier period to US$85.1 per tonne. C1 cash cost rose 12% year over year to US$23.1 per tonne, while all-in costs increased 21% to US$60.4 per tonne as currency, diesel and freight expenses moved higher.

Operationally, iron ore production declined 6% year over year, but sales increased 0.3%. The combination indicates that Vale was able to support shipments despite weaker output, including through inventory movements. For investors, the result leaves pricing and cost control as the main swing factors for the iron ore business.

Base metals offer a counterweight

The company's copper and nickel operations provided a more favorable contribution. Realized copper prices rose to US$15,314 per tonne, up 9% sequentially and 56% year over year. Nickel prices reached US$16,898 per tonne, 9% above the year-earlier level despite a 6% quarterly decline.

Copper all-in costs were negative US$175 per tonne, supported by by-product revenues. Nickel all-in costs rose 18% year over year to US$14,552 per tonne, reflecting planned maintenance. Vale said copper and nickel production remained on track for the upper half of their 2026 guidance ranges, while the Salobo operation delivered record third-quarter production.

Guidance remains unchanged

Vale reaffirmed all 2026 production guidance. Management expects the Serra Sul +20 and Compact Crushing projects to improve S11D performance, while the Salobo CPF project adds a longer-term copper growth option. The company also expects full-year capital spending near the lower end of its US$5.4 billion to US$5.7 billion range.

Recurring free cash flow reached US$1.4 billion, down US$0.2 billion from a year earlier, while total free cash flow was US$2.2 billion. Net debt stood at US$16.4 billion, US$0.2 billion lower than in the previous quarter. Vale said hedging, working-capital management and its affreightment strategy helped protect cash generation despite the weaker iron ore environment.

Vale stock stays tied to execution

Vale stock traded at 10.04 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 15:01 CET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. The quote keeps the market focus on whether fourth-quarter operating improvements can offset the pressure from iron ore pricing and costs.

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More news and analyses on Vale stock will track production, prices and the delivery of the company's 2026 operating targets.