VDSC projected VND 5,400 billion for Hoa Phat stock

VDSC had projected VND 5,400 billion in third-quarter 2026 net profit for Hoa Phat in a September 28, 2026 report cited by 24HMONEY. The estimate represented growth of 34.00 percent from the third quarter of 2025 and made Hoa Phat stock a test of whether higher output can offset softer steel prices.

Revenue growth meets margin pressure

The same VDSC forecast put third-quarter 2026 revenue at VND 54,000 billion, down 2.00 percent from the second quarter but up 48.00 percent from the year-earlier quarter. That mix matters because volume is expanding while pricing is moving in the opposite direction.

VDSC had estimated hot-rolled coil output at 2.15 million tons in the third quarter of 2026, up 12.00 percent from the second quarter and 70.00 percent from the third quarter of 2025. Construction steel output was projected at 1.30 million tons, up 21.00 percent year over year and broadly unchanged from the prior quarter.

Dung Quat 2 carries the thesis

The Dung Quat 2 complex was expected to operate at 90.00 percent efficiency in the third quarter, according to the cited VDSC analysis. In the second quarter of 2026, Hoa Phat had reported revenue of VND 55,200 billion and net profit of VND 6,400 billion, increases of 54.00 percent and 51.00 percent from the year-earlier quarter, respectively, as reported by CafeF.

The counterweight was pricing. VDSC had forecast average steel selling prices to fall 7.00 percent from the second quarter, leaving the third-quarter gross margin at 16.30 percent versus 19.00 percent in the second quarter. Gross profit was consequently projected at VND 8,800 billion, down 16.00 percent quarter over quarter but up 45.00 percent year over year.

HOSE valuation stays below the yearly high

On October 7, 2026, Hoa Phat was last listed at VND 20,400.00 on HOSE. The 52-week range was VND 19,600.00 to VND 26,559.90, placing the quote 23.19 percent below the yearly high, while market capitalization stood at VND 172.2 trillion.

The market picture therefore rests on a measurable trade-off: VDSC had projected 34.00 percent profit growth for the third quarter, but also a 16.30 percent gross margin after lower selling prices. Dung Quat 2 provides the volume upside, while steel pricing determines how much of that volume reaches earnings.

Hoa Phat stock and the next catalyst

Investing.com listed December 2, 2026 as Hoa Phat's next earnings reporting date. The company operates primarily in steel, with additional activities in industrial manufacturing, agriculture and real estate, and its HPG shares are included in the VN30 index.

Company: Hoa Phat Group JSC

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