Verbund stock resets 2026 targets after weak hydropower results

VERBUND reported a sharp deterioration in its first nine months on Thursday, November 5, after historically low water supply reduced hydropower generation and lower realised sales prices added pressure. The Austrian utility said in its official results release that EBITDA fell 29.0 percent year on year to 1,498.5 million euros and Group result declined 43.5 percent to 684.8 million euros.

Low water weighs on core generation

Hydropower generation dropped 20.2 percent to 15,984 GWh in the first three quarters. The run-of-river hydro coefficient fell to 0.61 from 0.79 a year earlier and stood 39 percentage points below the long-term average. Generation from annual storage plants declined 10.6 percent.

The pressure extended beyond volumes. The average sales price achieved for VERBUND's own hydropower generation fell by 33.8 euros per MWh to 79.7 euros per MWh. The company said extensive buybacks were required to cover electricity volumes that had already been sold but could not be generated because of the low water supply. Those purchases were made at higher spot-market prices.

Revenue decreased 5.4 percent to 5,560.4 million euros, while the operating result fell 39.4 percent to 1,005.6 million euros. Group result adjusted for non-recurring effects declined 37.3 percent to 725.0 million euros. Higher contributions from the Sales and All other segments partly offset the weakness in Hydro, New renewables and Grid.

Specific targets replace forecast ranges

VERBUND now expects 2026 EBITDA of around 2,120 million euros, a reported Group result of around 1,010 million euros and an adjusted Group result of around 1,050 million euros. These projections replace the previously published forecast ranges. The updated view includes below-average water supply in October and assumes average own generation from hydropower, wind power and photovoltaics in November and December.

Wind and photovoltaic generation rose by 70 GWh to 1,622 GWh as new facilities entered operation, but generation conditions remained below target. The planned payout ratio for 2026 is 45 to 55 percent of Group result after adjustment for non-recurring effects. For investors, the outlook therefore remains highly sensitive to water availability, realised power prices and the contribution from newer renewable assets.

Verbund stock remains in focus

Verbund stock traded at 73.68 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 11:02 CET on Thursday, November 12.

The ATX market backdrop remains the relevant Austrian market context for Verbund stock.

For more company-specific developments, see More news and analyses on Verbund stock.