Vodafone Group stock gains on new Jefferies Buy rating and Q1 FY27 growth

Vodafone Group stock (ISIN GB00BH4HKS39) is drawing fresh investor attention after Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an INR 20.00 price target as of September 9, 2026, implying about 29 percent upside from the latest closing price of INR 15.53 for Vodafone Idea shares in India, according to Economic Times on September 9, 2026.

Jefferies rating and upside potential

According to Economic Times on September 9, 2026, Jefferies started coverage of Vodafone Idea with a Buy recommendation and set a target price of INR 20.00 per share, which represents an expected gain of 28.78 percent from the closing level of INR 15.53 on that date.

As Moneycontrol reports, Jefferies views the Indian Vodafone Idea business as a high-beta turnaround story, expecting revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of about 11 percent between fiscal years 2026 and 2029, supported by stabilization of the subscriber base, premiumization of the customer mix and tariff increases.

Jefferies also expects cash EBITDA margins for Vodafone Idea to improve to around 29 percent over fiscal years 2026 to 2029, highlighting operating leverage in the business, according to LatestLY.

Recent Q1 FY27 figures and operating trends

Beyond the rating, the latest reported figures provide a clearer picture for investors. According to an analysis of Q1 FY27 results cited by Trade Brains, revenue from operations for Vodafone Idea increased by 6.1 percent year-on-year in Q1 FY27, rising from INR 11,022 crore in Q1 FY26 to INR 11,689 crore.

The same source notes that revenue also rose 3.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, up from INR 11,332 crore in Q4 FY26 to INR 11,689 crore in Q1 FY27, underlining steady top-line growth on both a yearly and sequential basis.

EBITDA for Q1 FY27 reached INR 5,034 crore, posting a 9.1 percent year-on-year increase compared with the prior-year quarter, while the EBITDA margin improved by 120 basis points to 43.1 percent versus 41.8 percent in Q1 FY26, reflecting improved operating efficiency according to Trade Brains.

The company’s net loss narrowed significantly year-on-year, declining from INR 6,608 crore in Q1 FY26 to INR 3,754 crore in Q1 FY27, which marks a considerable improvement in the bottom line even though the business remains loss-making, as summarized by Trade Brains.

Trade Brains further reports that cash EBITDA rose 13.5 percent year-on-year to INR 2,475 crore in Q1 FY27, despite the pressures from large-scale site rollouts and higher network costs, indicating progress on the cash generation profile of the operating business.

On the customer side, total subscribers stood at 193.1 million in Q1 FY27 and were higher than in the preceding quarter, marking the first quarter since the merger in which Vodafone Idea recorded a net addition of subscribers, according to Trade Brains.

Average revenue per user (ARPU) increased to INR 195 in Q1 FY27, up 10.2 percent from INR 177 in Q1 FY26 and 2.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, with management pointing out that ARPU has grown for 20 consecutive quarters, as highlighted by Trade Brains.

Contrasting analyst view from HSBC

While Jefferies is constructive, another global house is more cautious on Vodafone Idea. Trade Brains notes that HSBC recently raised its target price for Vodafone Idea shares to INR 8.25 from INR 7.70, implying downside potential of around 46.4 percent from a previous close of INR 15.42, according to Trade Brains.

This divergence between Jefferies’ INR 20.00 target with nearly 29 percent upside and HSBC’s INR 8.25 target with more than 40 percent implied downside underscores the uncertainty around the long-term trajectory of Vodafone’s Indian business and highlights the role of leverage and execution risk in the investment case.

Stock price context and investor takeaway

Per the Economic Times overview as of September 9, 2026, Vodafone Idea shares in India closed that day at INR 15.53 after a gain of 0.71 percent, while Jefferies’ INR 20.00 target suggests room for appreciation of 28.78 percent if its assumptions on ARPU growth and operating leverage are realized, based on Economic Times.

For investors looking at Vodafone Group stock more broadly, the combination of improving Q1 FY27 operating metrics, consistent ARPU expansion over 20 quarters and the contrasting analyst views from Jefferies and HSBC offers a nuanced picture: the turnaround in India is gaining traction in the numbers, but balance-sheet constraints and execution risk remain central factors in assessing the equity story.

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