Citic sees Mengniu profit at CNY 4.52 billion: what it means for Mengniu stock

Published on 10/13/2026 at 07:20 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Revenue rose 7.80 percent to CNY 44.79 billion in the first half. Mengniu stock's gross margin fell 0.90 percentage points in the first half of 2026.

Key points in brief

A 2026 net profit forecast puts Mengniu at CNY 4.52 billion.
First-half 2026 revenue rose 7.80 percent to CNY 44.79 billion.
Gross margin fell 0.90 percentage points, while net profit rose 15.94 percent.
Mengniu has HKD 70.2 billion in market capitalization and trades on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Mengniu, KYG210961051, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Citic Securities forecast CNY 4.52 billion in 2026 net profit for Mengniu in a September 28, 2026 report, giving Mengniu stock a fresh earnings benchmark. According to Futunn, the forecast also points to CNY 88.77 billion in 2026 revenue and CNY 5.40 billion in 2027 net profit.

Forecast meets first-half recovery

China Mengniu Dairy reported revenue of CNY 44.79 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 7.80 percent year over year. Its profit attributable to equity shareholders rose 15.94 percent to CNY 2.37 billion, while basic earnings per share increased 17.00 percent to CNY 0.612, according to Moomoo on September 25, 2026.

The earnings mix was uneven. Operating profit increased 3.90 percent to CNY 3.68 billion, but gross margin declined 0.90 percentage points to 40.80 percent as product price adjustments and higher raw-material costs weighed on profitability.

What does the forecast mean?

The forecast puts the next test on margin recovery rather than sales alone. First-half operating margin was 8.20 percent, down 0.30 percentage points year over year, while the sales and distribution expense ratio fell 0.34 percentage points to 27.60 percent.

Yahoo Finance reported that management cited stronger performance in fresh milk, cheese and powdered milk. Cheese revenue grew 32.60 percent in the first half, while fresh milk revenue increased 30.00 percent, making category diversification a key part of the recovery.

Three dated operating milestones

On August 26, 2026, Mengniu's interim earnings call reported CNY 45.00 billion in first-half revenue and CNY 3.68 billion in operating profit, according to Yahoo Finance. On September 25, 2026, the interim report disclosed CNY 2.37 billion in shareholder profit and no interim dividend, according to Moomoo. On September 28, 2026, Citic Securities projected CNY 4.52 billion in 2026 net profit and CNY 6.53 billion in 2028 net profit, according to Futunn.

Market value and listing

Mengniu had a market capitalization of HKD 70.20 billion and a 52-week range of HKD 13.88 to HKD 19.67 as of October 13, 2026. The Hong Kong-listed company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector and Packaged Foods industry, with liquid dairy contributing 79.00 percent of 2025 revenue.

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