Fortescue stock falls 1.22 percent as fair value is trimmed

Published on 10/07/2026 at 02:47 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Fortescue stock faces a fair value cut from AUD 21.75 to AUD 21.31 on October 5, 2026. FY26 revenue reached USD 16.966 billion on 201.3 million tonnes shipped.

Fortescue, AU000000FMG4, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Fortescue stock (ISIN AU000000FMG4) was trading at AUD 16.21 on the ASX on October 7, 2026 at 11:26 a.m. AEDT, down 1.22 percent from the prior close of AUD 16.41. The latest valuation update adds pressure to the share price as Simply Wall St reported on October 5, 2026 that fair value had been reduced from AUD 21.75 to AUD 21.31.

Valuation target moves lower

The revised AUD 21.31 fair value remains 31.45 percent above the AUD 16.21 market price. The reduction of AUD 0.44 represents a 2.02 percent cut from the earlier AUD 21.75 estimate, reflecting lower long-term revenue growth and profit-margin assumptions cited in the update.

The valuation change comes after Fortescue completed its FY26 reporting cycle. Fortescue reported FY26 underlying EBITDA of USD 8.6 billion, underlying net profit after tax of USD 3.5 billion and free cash flow of USD 3.2 billion.

FY26 delivered record shipments

Fortescue shipped 201.3 million tonnes of iron ore in FY26, while revenue reached USD 16.966 billion. The company also reported a fully franked FY26 dividend of AUD 1.08 per share, giving the valuation debate a direct income component.

The operating figures are substantial, but the earnings mix remains sensitive to iron ore prices and cost inflation. The latest company figures show the scale supporting the stock, while the lower fair value estimate shows why analysts are applying more cautious long-term assumptions.

Consensus target stays above price

Fintel reported on September 24, 2026 that Bell Potter upgraded Fortescue from Sell to Hold on September 22. The same consensus data, dated September 15, showed 22 recommendations, a Hold consensus, a mean target of AUD 17.71 and a median target of AUD 17.14.

Against the AUD 16.21 ASX price on October 7, 2026, the mean consensus target lies 9.25 percent above the price. The current quote is AUD 0.19, or 1.18 percent, above the 52-week low of AUD 16.02, while the 52-week high is AUD 23.38.

Fortescue stock trades near yearly low

Fortescue stock was last trading at AUD 16.21 on the ASX on October 7, 2026 at 11:26 a.m. AEDT. The next company reporting date listed for the stock is October 22, 2026.