StoneCo stock faces a Hold consensus after UBS target cut

Published on 09/30/2026 at 10:33 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

StoneCo stock has a USD 14.30 average analyst target as of September 30, 2026. Q2 revenue reached BRL 3.6 billion and adjusted EPS grew 9 percent.

STNE, KYG855241032, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

StoneCo stock (ISIN KYG855241032) carries a USD 2.3 billion market capitalization, with a 52-week range of USD 9.04 to USD 19.64. The central question is whether stronger credit growth can offset higher provisions and a tougher operating backdrop.

Analysts hold a cautious view

According to MarketBeat on September 30, 2026, six of 10 analysts rated StoneCo Hold and four rated it Buy, producing an average 12-month price target of USD 14.30. The same report says UBS cut its target from USD 15.00 to USD 13.00 on August 28, 2026, while retaining a Buy rating.

The target revisions show why the valuation alone is not the complete story. MarketBeat reported that StoneCo shares opened at USD 9.28 on September 30, 2026, while the 52-week high stood at USD 19.95 in its cited market snapshot, leaving the business priced well below its yearly peak.

Credit growth meets higher risk

In the Q2 2026 earnings call dated August 13, 2026, Yahoo Finance reported that StoneCo generated BRL 3.6 billion in revenue and BRL 1.6 billion in adjusted gross profit. Adjusted EPS grew 9 percent year over year, while total payment volume growth accelerated to 4 percent.

The operating mix is shifting toward financial services. Credit revenue increased 14 percent in Q2 2026, and the credit portfolio reached BRL 3.8 billion, twice its level a year earlier. Retail deposits reached BRL 10.8 billion, up 22 percent year over year, according to the same earnings-call transcript.

Risk remains the key counterweight. StoneCo said Q2 provision expenses reached BRL 188 million and cost of risk stood at 21.5 percent. Management expects cost of risk to trend toward the high-teens level over the medium term, while keeping its 2026 adjusted gross profit guidance at BRL 6.6 billion to BRL 7.0 billion.

Nasdaq context sets the valuation

StoneCo was last quoted at USD 9.28 on the Nasdaq on September 29, 2026, at 4:00 p.m. ET. The stock therefore remains close to its 52-week low, while the analyst average target of USD 14.30 stands 54.09 percent above that quoted level. For investors, execution in credit quality and merchant retention now matters as much as headline revenue growth.