A Tale of Two Halves: Nokia's Rally Fades as Ericsson Warning and Tech Selloff Collide
Published on 07/20/2026 at 10:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nokia enters its second-quarter earnings release on Thursday with a stock that looks like it has been through a war. The Finnish network equipment maker has shed 13.49% in just seven trading sessions, dragging the share price more than 40% below the 52-week high of €14.97 it touched as recently as early June. Yet the same equity has more than doubled over the past twelve months and still sits 59% above its January opening level — a split personality that underscores just how sharply sentiment has shifted in recent weeks.
The immediate trigger for the latest leg down came not from Nokia itself but from its Swedish rival Ericsson. After reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly numbers on Tuesday, Ericsson warned that surging demand for AI infrastructure is driving up costs for memory chips and semiconductor components. The caution sent a chill through the entire telecom equipment sector, with Nokia investors scrambling to price in the risk that similar margin pressure could infect Helsinki’s own books. The stock fell another 2.39% on Friday to close at €8.90, accelerating a slide that had already been fed by a broad-based technology rout on Wall Street.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 10% in a single week and now sits roughly 20% below its June record, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have both suffered heavy losses. In that environment, Nokia found itself in heavy company: alongside the likes of IBM, PayPal, TSMC and SpaceX, it ranked among the most actively traded names of the week. IBM’s own 25% stock crash on the back of weak preliminary quarterly data added an extra layer of jitters for any investor exposed to the sector.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
Technical indicators suggest the selling may be running out of steam. The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 31.5, edging into oversold territory, while the moving average convergence divergence indicator remains below its signal line, keeping short-term momentum negative. Analysts point to the $10 mark — equivalent to roughly €9.20 at current exchange rates — as a key psychological support that could determine near-term direction. With 30-day annualized volatility at 66.61%, the stage is set for sharp swings around the earnings report.
Nokia has not been standing still strategically. The company is deepening its partnership with Nvidia in the field of AI-RAN, or AI-powered radio access networks. The goal is to integrate GPU-based computing directly into mobile baseband processing, shifting from hardware-centric architectures toward software-defined, AI-native systems. While the partnership is widely seen as a long-term positioning play for Nokia’s networks division rather than an immediate revenue driver, it represents the kind of pivot that has fueled much of the year’s earlier optimism. That same optimism is now being tested by Ericsson’s cost warning, which raises uncomfortable questions about whether even an AI-focused strategy can fully insulate Nokia from rising component prices.
Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive despite the carnage. The average price target among analysts covering Nokia’s NYSE-listed shares stands at $16.10, with six recommendations at Buy, according to one consensus. Another survey puts the average target slightly lower at $14.67, but still implies substantial upside from current levels. JPMorgan raised its own target to $21 in June, reiterating an Overweight rating, while Argus Research upgraded the stock to Buy in April with a $15 target. The divergence in targets reflects the uncertainty surrounding the speed and margin profile of Nokia’s AI-networking push.
All eyes now turn to July 23, when Nokia will report second-quarter and first-half results at 8 a.m. Finnish time, followed by a 60-minute analyst webcast at 3 p.m. The market expects earnings of $0.07 per share, up from $0.04 a year ago, on revenue of $5.59 billion compared with $5.15 billion in the prior-year period. With Tesla, Alphabet and Intel all reporting in the same week, Nokia’s numbers will be parsed not only for their own merits but also for what they say about the broader health of the AI infrastructure spending cycle. The stock’s 158% recovery from last August’s 52-week low of €3.45 was built on hopes that Nokia could ride that wave; whether the wave is still rising or beginning to crest is the question the market wants answered.
Ad
Nokia Stock: New Analysis - 20 July
Fresh Nokia information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
