Abivax Attracts Wall Street Heavyweights Despite Safety Overhang
05.06.2026 - 06:24:47 | boerse-global.de
Two major financial institutions have quietly built positions in Abivax, signaling a divergence between institutional conviction and the broader market's reaction to the biotech's latest clinical readout. Merrill Lynch crossed the 5% reporting threshold on June 2, acquiring 5.17% of the company's capital, according to a filing with French regulator AMF. Separately, Bank of America disclosed that it now holds roughly 7.7% of shares indirectly through controlled entities.
The timing of the filings is striking. Just one day earlier, Abivax had unveiled positive Phase 3 data for its lead candidate Obefazimod in ulcerative colitis, with both tested doses meeting the primary endpoint. Clinical remission rates reached approximately 51% in the active arms versus 10.4% on placebo. Yet the stock has struggled to hold those gains.
Shares closed Thursday at €89.60, representing a 21% decline from the prior week and a 17% drop over the past month. The stock now trades below both its 50-day moving average of €100.31 and its 200-day average of €96.28. The equity has fallen 31.5% from its 52-week high of €130.80 reached on January 12, though it remains up an eye-popping 1,181.83% over the trailing twelve months.
Safety Concerns Cloud the Efficacy Story
The disconnect between robust efficacy and negative price action stems from safety signals that emerged from the trial. At the higher dose, investigators identified four cases of skin cancer, two of which were deemed unrelated or unlikely to be treatment-related, and two with prior skin cancer history. Additionally, one case each of prostate cancer, breast cancer and a colon dysplasia were reported. Abivax stated that the investigators did not link these malignancies to the therapy and that no organ-specific pattern was observed.
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These findings have dampened takeover speculation that had been building for months. Stifel analyst Damien Choplain argued that the malignancy signal does not prove a causal safety risk but rather may become a labeling issue down the road. He noted that AbbVie's Rinvoq, which carries a malignancy warning in the U.S., still generated $8.3 billion in sales in 2025. Still, Choplain believes Abivax is likely to wait for full data in October before any deal materializes, and potential acquirers have little incentive to rush.
Analysts Sharply Divided on Valuation
The Street is unusually split on where Abivax goes from here. Citizens raised its price target from $131 to $187, reiterating Outperform. Morgan Stanley lowered its target from $145 to $132 but stays Overweight. Wedbush upgraded from Underperform to Neutral while slashing its target to $90. Wolfe Research cut its target from $176 to $136, maintaining Outperform. Jefferies took the most cautious stance, downgrading from Buy to Hold, citing an overhang that will be difficult to shake. The consensus average target stands near $147, well above the current share price, reflecting a wide gap that the market must close to regain confidence.
Balance Sheet Provides a Buffer
Financially, Abivax is in no rush. As of March 31, 2026, the company held approximately €491.6 million in cash and short-term investments, with a runway extending through the fourth quarter of 2027. That cash position strengthens its negotiating hand with potential partners and removes any immediate pressure to tap capital markets.
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The regulatory timeline remains unchanged. Abivax plans to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA for ulcerative colitis in late Q4 2026. Topline results from a Phase 2b induction study in Crohn's disease are expected by mid-2027. A shareholder meeting is scheduled for today, following approval of board proposals—including the 2025 accounts and compensation policy—on May 11.
The next pivotal moment comes in October, when full data from the ulcerative colitis study will be released. If the independent assessment that the cancers are not treatment-related holds, the takeover narrative could swiftly re-emerge. If the safety overhang persists, Abivax may need to navigate a longer path through the regulatory process to clarify the drug's label.
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