Adidas Rides World Cup Glory and Rival’s Chinese Retreat, Yet Hurdles Remain
Published on 07/22/2026 at 17:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Adidas has entered a period of notable contrasts. The German sportswear giant is capitalising on a World Cup sales bonanza and a strategic misstep by arch-rival Nike in China, even as it grapples with a decelerating growth trajectory and the loss of a 77-year-old sponsorship on home soil. Shares edged up 0.93% to €179.85 on July 22, driven by news that sends a clear signal about shifting competitive dynamics in the world’s second-largest economy.
Nike’s Chinese Pivot Opens a Door
The catalyst for the day’s positive sentiment came from an unexpected source: Nike’s decision to terminate its online wholesale partnership with Chinese distributor Topsports, effective January 1, 2027. The US giant will now sell exclusively through its own app and website, alongside third-party platforms Tmall, JD and Douyin. For Topsports, the blow is severe — Nike’s online business represented roughly 22% of the distributor’s group revenue, and its shares plunged as much as 23% on the announcement.
The move follows seven consecutive quarters of declining Nike sales in Greater China, with the fourth quarter alone seeing a 17% drop on a constant-currency basis. Analysts at BNP Paribas labelled the decision a “strategic misstep” that could cost Nike between $500 million and $1 billion in revenue. For Adidas, however, the reordering of China’s online landscape presents a clear opportunity. Market observers believe the brand can exploit the vacuum left by Nike’s departure, picking up shelf space at wholesalers and on platforms now looking for alternatives.
Adidas has already demonstrated momentum in the region. Greater China revenue reached €3.62 billion in 2025, a 13% increase that marked the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth. Yet the pace is cooling: expansion slowed from 13% in the first quarter to 11% in the second and 10% in the third. The once-hot Samba sneaker has lost more than half its value on China’s secondary market, though the running category — up over 30% in the third quarter — is picking up the slack.
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World Cup Windfall Lifts the Top Line
On the pitch, Adidas enjoyed a near-perfect tournament. The World Cup final in the US, Canada and Mexico pitted two Adidas-sponsored nations — Spain and Argentina — against each other, with Spain emerging 1-0 winners. CEO Bjørn Gulden disclosed that World Cup-related sales exceeded $1.7 billion, with jersey sales quadrupling and football equipment revenue doubling compared to the previous tournament. The Mexican national team shirt was the best-seller, moving roughly five million units.
Spain’s victory triggered a rush for the championship jersey, priced at around $100, which quickly sold out through official channels. The shirt worn by teenage sensation Lamine Yamal had already been exhausted during the group stage. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate the title win could add two to four percentage points to Adidas’s quarterly revenue growth.
Beyond the tournament, the brand’s product pipeline is humming. The Adios Pro EVO 3 running shoe helped a marathoner break the two-hour barrier in London, while its successor, the EVO SL, sold 10 million units in its first year. Group revenue for 2025 came in at €24.8 billion, up 13% globally.
A Bittersweet Home-Field Loss
For all the international success, Adidas suffered a symbolic blow on its own turf. Nike has poached the sponsorship of the German national football team, ending a 77-year partnership between Adidas and the DFB. The new deal, reportedly worth around €100 million annually, was unveiled in New York with a pixel-styled kit inspired by the 1974 World Cup design. It marks the end of one of the most storied sponsorships in German sport.
Adidas is not standing still. Its Climacool+ technology is being rolled out to clubs including Fenerbahçe, Al-Ahli, and Brazilian sides SC Internacional and Cruzeiro, with Chilean giants Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile joining from 2027. For Japan’s J-League, a retro shirt for Yokohama F. Marinos featuring the classic trefoil logo is in the works, and the 2027/28 season will bring bold geometric patterns and oversized three-stripe designs.
Legal Relief and Market Caution
On the legal front, a US appeals court in San Francisco upheld a ruling in Adidas’s favour in a shareholder lawsuit related to the collapse of the Yeezy partnership with Kanye West. The court found that investors should have anticipated risks inherent in celebrity collaborations. The Yeezy fallout had cost Adidas hundreds of millions of euros and weighed heavily on the stock in 2023; the ruling now clears a potential overhang of further litigation costs.
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Despite these tailwinds, the share price has yet to stage a sustained recovery. The stock closed at €178.20 on the day of the DFB announcement, down 1.36%, and remains 12.43% below its 52-week high of €203.50 from July 2025. It is trading 5.18% above its 50-day moving average but still 11.62% below that peak. Year-to-date, the stock is up 5.41%, suggesting investors are not fundamentally questioning the company’s operational progress but remain cautious in the near term.
Analyst targets paint an optimistic picture. JPMorgan sees the stock at €230, Bernstein at €245, UBS at €219, and RBC at €210 — all with buy or outperform ratings. Deutsche Bank and Jefferies are also positive, with targets of €210 and €205 respectively. Goldman Sachs is more restrained with a neutral rating and €185 target, while Berenberg holds at €190 with a “Hold” recommendation.
All eyes now turn to Adidas’s half-year results, due on July 30, which will provide the clearest picture yet of how the World Cup boost, China’s shifting sands, and the DFB departure are shaping the bottom line.
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