Adidas Stock at Crossroads: Earnings Report to Validate or Deflate World Cup Rally
Published on 07/16/2026 at 06:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Adidas shares have staged a remarkable recovery from their March lows, but the next few weeks will determine whether that momentum is built on solid ground or speculative froth. The trigger: the company’s second-quarter earnings report, due at the end of July, which will reveal how much of the World Cup windfall is actually flowing through to the bottom line.
The foundation for the stock’s rebound was laid by a record 2025. Currency-adjusted revenue jumped 13% to €24.8 billion, net profit reached €1.377 billion, and e-commerce sales surged 16%. Growth was broad-based, with wholesale, direct-to-consumer, and own retail all posting double-digit gains. Those results gave investors confidence that the turnaround under CEO Bjørn Gulden was taking hold.
That confidence has propelled the stock from its 52-week low of €130.20 on 23 March to Wednesday’s close of €181.95, a gain of nearly 40%. On the day, the shares rose 1.34%, leaving them 8.62% above their 50-day moving average and 14.89% above the 200-day line. The relative strength index has cooled to 58.4 after briefly touching overbought territory above 70, signalling that the rally has room to run without being technically stretched.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Adidas?
Still, the stock remains 13% below its all-time high of €209.20 reached on 16 July 2025. Analysts see that gap as achievable if the Q2 numbers deliver. The consensus among 12 analysts is for earnings per share of €2.38, up from €2.07 a year earlier, on revenue of €6.57 billion — an increase of more than 10% from the prior year’s €5.95 billion. Full-year estimates are equally ambitious: 25 analysts project EPS of €9.54 and revenue of €26.70 billion.
The World Cup is the primary catalyst behind those forecasts. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Adidas will generate roughly $1.4 billion in turnover from the tournament. Gulden has described the effect as far broader than the event itself, spilling over into the lifestyle category. HSBC analyst Akshay Gupta expects currency-adjusted sales growth of 15% in the quarter, paired with an EBIT margin of 10.6%. Deutsche Bank’s Adam Cochrane has gone even further, lifting his growth projection to 16%, with 7 percentage points attributed directly to the World Cup.
Yet the bullish case is not without risks. Adidas does not disclose its marketing spend around the tournament, making it difficult to assess how much of the revenue surge reaches the profit line. Competition from specialist running brands On and Hoka remains intense, and the company faces headwinds from currency fluctuations, tariffs, and a likely deceleration in growth during the second half of the year. The stock’s annualized volatility of 24% underscores that sharp swings in both directions remain possible.
The Q2 report will therefore be a defining moment. If it confirms the double-digit revenue growth and earnings improvement that analysts expect, the rally could extend toward the €209 record. If it falls short, the stock’s elevated valuation offers little downside protection. For now, the market is betting that the World Cup magic is real — but the proof will come in the numbers.
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Adidas Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
Fresh Adidas information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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