Airbus Scores Best First Half Since 2019, but Supply Snags and a Trimmed Long-Range Outlook Cloud the Horizon
Published on 07/18/2026 at 18:07 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Airbus has delivered 351 commercial aircraft in the first half of 2026, its strongest start to a year since the pre-pandemic era, as a clearance of the China delivery logjam and easing engine bottlenecks gave production a visible lift. The figure represents a roughly 15% increase over the 306 units handed over in the same period last year, with June alone accounting for 89 jets. The stock reflected the operational improvement: it closed Friday at €48.60, up 0.41% on the day and 6.11% higher over the past month, though it remains 11.64% below the 52-week high of €55.00 reached in January.
Yet the momentum is tempered by persistent supply-chain friction and a cautious revision to Airbus’s own long-term market outlook. According to a Bain & Company survey, 87% of aerospace and defence programmes still rank supplier bottlenecks as a primary constraint. For Airbus, engine shortages specifically continue to limit A320-family output. In an unusual workaround that underscores the severity of the problem, both Airbus and Boeing have resorted to chartering Antonov An-124 cargo planes to airlift fuselage sections instead of relying on slower sea freight. Airbus is flying A350 parts from Kinston, North Carolina, to France — a costly stop-gap that has become necessary as safety stocks run dry.
At the same time, Airbus has trimmed its 20-year demand forecast to 42,060 new deliveries between 2026 and 2045, a 1% reduction from its previous estimate. The company cited trade conflicts and the conflict in Iran as the main drivers. Within that projection, 33,920 are expected to be single-aisle jets and 8,140 widebodies. Asia is forecast to absorb half of all deliveries, while replacement purchases account for 47% of demand. The assumed annual traffic growth rate has been lowered from 4.1% to 3.9%; India remains the fastest-growing market at 9.1%, while the projection for China was cut to 4.7%. On the positive side, Airbus sees its A220 programme unlocking more than 2,200 previously unserved routes — roughly 800 each in North America and Asia-Pacific, and over 600 in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.
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Order intake has been robust, especially from China. Chinese airlines and lessors have placed around 200 orders with Airbus so far this year, following roughly 150 in the whole of 2025. Total gross orders in the first half reached 887, with net orders after cancellations standing at 822. Airbus maintains an official delivery target of 870 aircraft for 2026, which implies around 520 more handovers in the second half, while an internal goal calls for surpassing 900 deliveries by year-end.
Analyst sentiment remains divided. Panmure Liberum upgraded the stock from “Conserver” to “Acheter” and lifted its 12-month price target from €141 to €198, also establishing a three-year target of €237, implying roughly 23% upside. UBS reiterated a buy rating and raised its own target significantly, noting that the operational recovery should offset the weak first quarter, when revenue fell 7% to €12.651 billion and operating profit slumped 53% to €224 million. Jefferies was more measured, lifting its target to €200 but keeping a “Hold” rating, arguing that better value lies elsewhere in the European aerospace and defence sector.
Defence activity provided an additional tailwind. Romania signed contracts worth around €1 billion, of which €757 million will buy 12 H225M Caracal military helicopters from Airbus, with the remainder going to Thales for radar systems. Deliveries are scheduled through 2030 under the European Safe defence programme.
The market will now look to the Farnborough International Airshow (July 20–24), where Airbus is expected to capitalise on its order momentum, followed by the half-year earnings call on July 29. Investors will be watching whether the delivery acceleration can be sustained in the second half — and whether the long-term forecast cut signals deeper structural challenges or merely a prudent recalibration in a volatile geopolitical environment.
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