Aixtron’s Optoelectronics Surge Masks Deep SiC Struggles as July 30 Earnings Test Looms
29.06.2026 - 19:33:07 | boerse-global.de
The disconnect at Aixtron could hardly be starker. One half of the business is running at full throttle, powered by insatiable demand from AI data centres, while the other half is stuck in a deep trough of overcapacity. The stock has already priced in much of the upside, and now investors are waiting for proof that the order bonanza can translate into sustainable profits. That proof is due on July 30, when the company releases its half-year report.
Shares of the German semiconductor equipment maker have had a spectacular run, surging from around €12 to a record €62.68 before settling back into a consolidation phase. Currently trading near €52, the stock still carries a year-to-date gain of roughly 167%. But the recent pullback of more than 10% on a monthly basis suggests the market is getting nervous.
The driving force behind the rally is unmistakable: optoelectronics. In the first quarter, Aixtron booked €171.4 million in orders for systems used in lasers, optical data transmission and power supplies for AI data centres. That was a 30% jump year-on-year and accounted for nearly 70% of total group orders. The company enjoys an exceptional market position in this segment, with analysts putting its share at over 90%. Demand is so strong that Aixtron is already pushing large deliveries into 2027 because customers simply cannot find available production capacity.
For the current quarter, management expects revenue roughly to double from a year earlier, targeting around €110 million. The full-year guidance stands at €560 million. That optimism is backed by a swelling order backlog of almost €360 million. Adding to the positive signals, the prestigious MIT Lincoln Laboratory recently purchased two Aixtron systems for compound semiconductor research.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Aixtron?
Yet the other side of the business tells a different story. Aixtron’s silicon carbide (SiC) equipment division is suffering from chronic overcapacity in the end-market. Clients are running their own factories well below utilisation rates, depressing demand for new tools. Management has warned that SiC revenue will decline significantly in 2026, and most experts do not expect a recovery before late 2026 or early 2027. Many investors had hoped for a quicker turnaround, but the reality is proving stubborn.
The contrast between the two segments leaves Aixtron in an unusual position: a near-monopoly in a booming market (optoelectronics) and a struggling business in a commoditised one (SiC). While the monopoly offers pricing power and volume, it also carries risk. When you already dominate the market, there is little room to gain additional share, and if demand suddenly softens, there is no safety net.
The first quarter numbers already revealed the strain. Despite the record order intake, the operating result slipped deep into the red. That is typical for a capital-intensive equipment business where revenue recognition lags order entry, but it still spooked some investors. The July 30 report will be the first real chance to show that the backlog is converting into top-line growth and that margins are heading in the right direction.
Financially, Aixtron is well positioned to weather any downturn. At the end of March, the company held €272.7 million in cash and boasted an equity ratio of 85%. It further strengthened its balance sheet in April by issuing a €450 million convertible bond. That war chest gives management the flexibility to ride out the SiC slump without being forced to cut investment.
Aixtron at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the stock is at a crossroads. The 50-day moving average sits at €52.59, just above the current price, while the relative strength index of 44.5 points to a neutral market without signs of panic or euphoria. The six-billion-euro market capitalisation already bakes in a lot of future optimism.
The real catalyst, however, will be the July 30 earnings release. If Aixtron can demonstrate that its optoelectronics boom is finally feeding through to higher revenues and improving margins, the consolidation could prove to be a healthy pause. If not, the market’s patience may wear thin. For now, the SiC overcapacity remains the biggest unknown – and the clock is ticking.
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