Almonty Has Delivered on Production and Bolstered Its Revenue Pipeline for Two Decades – So Why Is the Stock Down 25% in a Month?
Published on 07/19/2026 at 15:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Just weeks after Almonty Industries fired up its Sangdong mine in South Korea and locked in a 21-year offtake deal that points to roughly US$490 million in annual revenue, the stock is trading near C$19.25 — 42% below the April high of C$33.35 and only 1.5% above its 200-day moving average. On Friday a 3.94% bounce broke a brutal stretch that wiped out 17.66% in a single week and more than 25% over the past month. The market's reaction looks perverse given the operational progress, but the sell-off has a logic of its own: the equity has been pricing in expansions that haven't been built yet, and the transition from explorer to producer is proving messier than the share price action of 2025 suggested.
The headline catalyst is concrete. On July 14, Almonty expanded its long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders for Sangdong Phase I to 4.41 million MTU over 21 years — up from 15 years and 40% larger in volume. At current tungsten prices that works out to roughly US$490 million in expected annual sales. The catch is that the contract covers only Phase I. Phase II, which the company says would roughly double processing capacity, and output from Almonty's other sites are not included. That US$490 million is a floor, not a ceiling — but the market had already begun capitalizing expansion optionality before the mine had produced a single tonne.
The production milestone itself came on July 1, when Sangdong began processing a 139,700-tonne ore stockpile into saleable tungsten concentrate. Almonty is no longer a story stock; it is a producer. Yet the annualized 30-day volatility of nearly 85% is a reminder that this is a project finding its operating rhythm, not an established industrial company. The 50-day moving average sits at C$24.61 and the 100-day average at C$25.36 — both well above the current price — reflecting how sharply sentiment has cooled since April. The 200-day average at C$18.96 is the most consequential line in the sand: it compresses a year of market history — IPO euphoria, construction delays, the production start, and the contract expansion — into a single technical level.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
None of this happens in isolation. Tungsten prices have more than sextupled since early 2025, a surge of over 550% that accelerated after Beijing tightened export controls on the metal early this year. China controls up to 85% of global tungsten supply, and the US-led rearmament cycle has turned that dependency from a logistics headache into a security risk. Almonty’s move of its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, is a deliberate positioning as America’s tungsten supplier. The strategic premium is why the company, despite the recent pullback, still commands a market capitalization near €3.27 billion — a figure that reflects a multi-year bet on Western resource security, not the past month's trading sentiment.
The relative strength index of 38.1 puts the stock near oversold territory, a zone where bargain hunters typically step in. But the 42% decline from the 52-week high is a correction of substance, not a blip. From the July 2025 low of C$4.36, the stock is still up more than 340%, and on a 12-month view the gain is roughly 210%. Both the alarmist tone in online forums and the bullish longer-term narrative have factual support.
What happens next depends less on isolated tungsten fundamentals and more on the next headline out of Beijing, Washington, or Sangdong itself. The 200-day moving average will either hold as a floor, making the recent slide a healthy pause after an extraordinary year, or it will give way, reopening the path toward the 52-week trough — even as the West scrambles for every gram of non-Chinese tungsten it can find. For investors, the defining question is whether Almonty can convert its now-contracted revenue pipeline into steady, unspectacular cash flow. The chart is asking that question in real time.
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