Almonty Industries: A Russell 1000 Debut and $3,000 Tungsten Can't Stop the Selloff — Yet
Published on 06/25/2026 at 17:08 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries finds itself in an unusual tug-of-war. The tungsten miner is days away from joining the Russell 1000 and 3000 indexes, a milestone that typically triggers automatic buying from passive funds. At the same time, its shares have dropped 10% in the past week and are hovering around 23.77 Canadian dollars — nearly 30% below the April high of 33.35 CAD. The relative strength index sits at 43, a level that suggests neither oversold nor overbought conditions, but the trajectory has been steadily lower.
The contradiction is stark: a structural catalyst that usually supports prices is colliding with persistent selling pressure. Early investors and insiders are sitting on massive gains — the stock has more than quadrupled over the past twelve months and is still up roughly 98% year-to-date. The temptation to use the increased liquidity around index inclusion as an exit window is real. One insider recently sold 20,000 shares at about 21.73 CAD, representing 37% of their direct stake, while another insider disposal worth 1.7 million Canadian dollars was recorded in the past three months.
Tungsten at a Critical Threshold
Underpinning the long-term case is a commodity market that is tightening fast. Global tungsten prices have surged past 3,000 US dollars per metric tonne unit, and China is curbing exports aggressively. Almonty controls the largest tungsten deposit outside of China, positioning it as a critical supplier for defence and technology customers. Major industrial buyers such as Rheinmetall and Intel rely on tungsten for armour-piercing munitions and semiconductors, with few viable substitutes available.
The Sangdong project in South Korea is designed to fill that gap. Phase 2 expansion, funded by a recently completed convertible note offering, is scheduled to begin in 2027 and should produce around 4,600 tonnes of concentrate annually. The company raised 800 million US dollars through the convertible issue on June 9, carrying a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031. Net proceeds total about 772.7 million US dollars, with roughly 83 million dollars earmarked for capped-call transactions that limit dilution if the notes are converted above a certain price.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The Bear Case: Losses, Volatility and Technical Damage
The bull narrative is compelling, but the numbers on the other side are equally concrete. Almonty posted a net loss of 161.9 million Canadian dollars for the full 2025 fiscal year, an increase of 145.6 million CAD from the prior year. The gulf between revenue growth — up 221% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 — and profitability remains wide.
Technical indicators have deteriorated. The 50-day moving average of 26.94 CAD and the 100-day average of 25.00 CAD now serve as resistance rather than support, while the price-to-book ratio is well above industry norms. The 30-day annualised volatility of 91.86% heightens the risk of a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" pattern, especially since the stock is already falling ahead of the index event.
The Immediate Test: June 29
From June 29 onward, index funds and ETFs tracking the Russell 1000 and 3000 must hold Almonty shares, creating non-discretionary demand. The key question is whether this mechanical buying can absorb the profit-taking. If the stock holds above the 200-day moving average of 17.96 CAD and recovers through the 100-day average near 25.00 CAD, a retest of the April high becomes plausible. A sustained break below 23 CAD without a reversal from index buying would shift attention to the next structural support.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Beyond the index event, the next major catalyst lies in Montana. Almonty is targeting production at the Gentung-Browns Lake project in the second half of 2026, with a potential output of 140,000 MTUs. Binding offtake agreements for tungsten oxide destined for US defence applications are already signed. That timeline aligns with the Pentagon's January 2027 deadline to stop purchasing Chinese tungsten — a geopolitical tailwind that could trigger a rerating if the project comes online smoothly.
Until then, the burden of proof rests with the bulls. Sangdong's ramp-up must translate into positive free cash flow, not just revenue growth, for the market to look past the current losses and insider selling. The convergence of a $3,000 tungsten price, a US defence deadline, and a Russell index entry is rare, but it has yet to overcome the gravitational pull of a stock that has run too far, too fast.
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Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
