Almonty Industries: The Stock Dropped 14% Despite a $773M Windfall — Here's What Gives
Published on 06/26/2026 at 19:57 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries pulled off the largest financing in its history earlier this month, netting $772.7 million from an oversubscribed convertible bond. The stock market's response? A 14% slide over the past 30 days and a 30% retreat from its April high. That disconnect sums up the challenge facing the tungsten and molybdenum developer: capital is no longer the bottleneck — execution is.
The convertible note, closed on June 9, 2026, carries a 2.25% coupon maturing in 2031. Including the fully exercised $100 million overallotment, the total issuance was $800 million. After fees and hedging transactions, net proceeds stood at $772.7 million, earmarked for working capital, corporate purposes, potential acquisitions and refinancing of existing debt. The initial conversion price is roughly $27.40 per share, with hedging capping dilution until the stock reaches $41.36.
The company has already started putting that cash to work. Its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea began commercial operations in March 2026, ending a 30-year hiatus. Phase 1 is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, targeting 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year. A Phase 2 expansion, slated for completion by 2027, would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes and lift output to around 4,600 tonnes annually — enough to supply roughly 40% of the world’s tungsten demand outside China.
That strategic positioning has not gone unnoticed. Almonty is set to join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices on June 29, 2026, forcing index funds to buy the stock. The move provides a short-term demand catalyst, but the bigger prize is establishing a reliable non-Chinese supply chain for tungsten — a metal critical to defense and high-tech industries. The U.S. Department of Defense is actively seeking alternatives to Chinese sources, and Almonty’s recent acquisition of the Gentung project in Montana, plus a corporate headquarters relocation there, directly targets that demand. Gentung is expected to be production-ready in the second half of 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Meanwhile, Almonty is drilling a molybdenum prospect adjacent to Sangdong. About 37% of the planned holes have been completed, and initial assays confirm grades consistent with historical data. South Korea faces an acute molybdenum shortage, giving Almonty a structural home-field advantage once the resource is fully delineated. Molybdenum prices have risen roughly 37% year-over-year, adding a potential second revenue stream.
On the financial front, the first quarter of 2026 showed tangible progress. Revenue surged 221% to C$25.4 million, driven by higher ammonium paratungstate prices and steady output from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Operating cash flow reached C$9.7 million, a sign that the core business is generating cash before Sangdong’s ramp-up accelerates.
The bear case, however, is equally clear. Operational delays are the biggest risk. Large-scale mining projects rarely run exactly to schedule, and any hiccup in the Sangdong ramp — whether in Phase 1 stabilization or Phase 2 by 2027 — would directly hit revenue forecasts. The molybdenum project is still in the drilling stage, with years to go before production. And commodity prices can turn quickly: a demand slowdown or a loosening of Chinese export restrictions would squeeze margins just as Almonty scales up.
The convertible note also introduces dilution risk. Should the stock climb above the conversion price, investors will face gradual dilution, even though share settlement can be done in cash. The hedges only protect up to $41.36. Meanwhile, the stock remains highly volatile, with an annualized volatility of 92.4%. In the past 30 days alone, it lost 14.04%, despite the positive news flow. A further overhang is the Gentung project, which depends on U.S. regulatory approvals that could cause delays.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
So what will break the stalemate? Two data points stand out. First, the second-quarter results, due in the coming months, will reveal whether Sangdong Phase 1 is already contributing measurable revenue or if the ramp is slower than expected. Second, new drilling results from the molybdenum project will determine whether Almonty can credibly brand itself as a dual-commodity producer within the next few quarters.
As long as production progress remains visible and molybdenum assays keep sending positive signals, the supportive pricing environment and index inclusion should underpin the bull case. If concrete milestones fail to materialize, however, the fresh capital alone won’t prop up a stock that is already 30% off its highs — and the market's patience has a limit.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 26 June
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