Almonty Joins the Russell 1000, but a $800M Convertible and a 29% Stock Slide Tell a More Complex Story
01.07.2026 - 03:32:51 | boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries crossed a threshold this week that most junior miners never reach: a spot in the Russell 1000 Index. Roughly $12.2 trillion in assets are benchmarked to Russell’s US indices, and a meaningful slice of that capital was previously off-limits to Almonty’s stock. The entry should, in theory, unlock a wave of passive buying. Yet the shares closed at C$23.64 — nearly 97% above where they started 2026, but 29% below their April peak and well shy of the C$26.43 50-day moving average.
The disconnect is partly self-inflicted. In early June, Almonty closed an oversubscribed $800 million convertible bond offering, netting $772.7 million after costs. The notes carry a 2.25% coupon, mature in 2031, and convert at roughly $27.40 per share — a 32.5% premium to the prevailing price at launch. Investors, however, focused on dilution rather than strategy. The stock shed about 30% in the month following the placement, despite the fact that the proceeds are earmarked for two of the most consequential growth projects in the Western tungsten industry.
The first is Sangdong in South Korea, which began commercial production in March 2026. The mine is currently processing 640,000 tonnes of ore a year and producing roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, slated for 2027, will double that capacity. A 15-year offtake agreement with a floor price covers more than 90% of the mine's output — a structure that gives Almonty a predictable revenue base. In the first quarter, revenue surged 221% to $25.4 million, while operating cash flow flipped from negative $4.4 million to positive $9.7 million (CAD terms, per secondary source) — a tangible sign that Sangdong is moving beyond the startup phase.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The second destination for the convertible proceeds is the Gentung-Browns Lake project in Montana, where Almonty holds exclusive rights. The target is production readiness by the second half of 2026 — a timeline that aligns directly with a Pentagon procurement ban taking effect on January 1, 2027. From that date, the US Department of Defense will be barred from buying tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea. With China controlling roughly 80% of global supply and the US having produced no commercial tungsten since 2015, the gap is as large as it is urgent. Almonty’s Montana asset hosts an estimated 7.53 million tonnes at 0.315% tungsten trioxide, with planned annual capacity of 140,000 tonne units.
Almonty’s balance sheet is now well-stocked for both projects. At the end of March 2026, it held $259.9 million in cash, and the convertible bond added another $772.7 million net. The company is one of the few in the critical-minerals space that already generates revenue — $32.5 million in 2025, up almost 13% — but the market appears to be pricing in execution risk. The annualized volatility is above 91%, and the stock’s 52-week high of C$33.35 sits nearly 30% above current levels.
Wall Street remains firmly behind management. Nine analysts rate the stock a "Strong Buy" on average. Oppenheimer's Ian Zaffino recently raised his price target to $25 from $22, maintaining an Outperform rating. The key unknown for the second half of the year is whether Almonty can secure a similar offtake arrangement for Gentung-Browns Lake as it has for Sangdong — a floor-priced, long-term contract that de-risks the project before it reaches production. Without it, the gap between index inclusion and investor confidence may persist.
Ad
Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 1 July
Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
