Almonty’s 21-Year Tungsten Contract Won’t Stop the Slide as Technical Signals Point to Oversold Territory
Published on 07/16/2026 at 17:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between Almonty Industries’ operational milestones and its stock performance has rarely been wider. Since sealing a substantially expanded offtake deal that locks in revenue through the late 2040s, the tungsten developer has seen its shares shed more than a quarter of their value in the past month alone.
Almonty closed at C$19.08 on Thursday, down 3.05% on the day and 26.56% lower than 30 days ago. The stock now trades 42.79% below its 52-week high of C$33.35, touched in mid-April. Even so, the shares remain up 186% year-on-year, underscoring how far they have fallen from recent peaks.
Deal Extends Revenue Visibility to 2047
On July 14, 2026, Almonty announced a major expansion of its long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a subsidiary of Austria’s Plansee Group. The contract length jumps from 15 to 21 years from first delivery, pushing guaranteed supply commitments into the late 2040s. Volumes rise 40% to 4.41 million metric tonne units, with a minimum annual take of 210,000 MTU once the mine reaches steady production. Revised pricing terms are expected to lift realized revenue per MTU by roughly 6.3%, adding at least US$30 million in annual sales. Over the full 21-year term, the deal’s cumulative value reaches US$490 million at current prices and covers about 90% of planned Phase I tungsten concentrate output from the Sangdong mine.
Diamond Equity Research called the agreement a clear improvement in price realization and a reduction in marketing risk during the ramp-up phase. The analysts also viewed it as validation of Sangdong’s product quality and Almonty’s role as a non-Chinese tungsten supplier to Western markets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Sangdong Shifts from Development to Production
The real catalyst behind investor interest has been Sangdong’s transition from construction to active value creation. On July 1, 2026, Almonty reported the start of throughput operations at the processing plant in South Korea. The facility is currently working through an initial stockpile of roughly 139,700 tonnes of run-of-mine ore, with an average blended tungsten trioxide grade of approximately 0.25%.
The production milestone coincides with a boost in institutional visibility: Almonty was added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices on June 29, a move expected to attract fund managers seeking conflict-free tungsten supply chains outside China.
Analysts Hold Firm Despite the Selloff
DA Davidson reiterated its “Buy” rating on July 15 with a US$33 price target, just days after lifting it from US$25. Oppenheimer had already raised its target to US$25 from US$22 on June 3, maintaining an “Outperform” call. The consensus among covering analysts remains a “Strong Buy,” with no sell recommendations. However, price targets vary widely, reflecting the difficulty of valuing a mine developer that has just become a producer.
Not all voices are unreservedly bullish. Some valuation models flag Almonty as overpriced on traditional metrics. The price-to-sales ratio stands at about 165.93, and the price-to-book ratio at roughly 23.25 — levels that draw criticism from value-focused analysts. Revenue sits at US$32.51 million with a gross margin of 29.3%, but profitability measures remain deeply negative.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technical Pressure Mounts, But Cash Position Supports
The stock has been under significant selling pressure. On Monday alone, shares tumbled 9.6% from C$16.61 to C$15.02 intraday, with a session range of C$14.68 to C$16.26. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 36.3, approaching oversold territory — a technical signal that often precedes stabilization but carries no guarantee. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at a hefty 103.49%, and the stock now trades 22.08% below its 50-day moving average of C$24.98.
Almonty’s balance sheet provides a cushion. As of March 31, 2026, the company held US$259.9 million in cash, offering ample runway to complete the Sangdong ramp-up and further expansion. With production now generating saleable concentrate and the offtake contract extending into the 2040s, the fundamental case for a recovery is intact. Whether the stock can close the gap to analyst targets will likely depend on the next quarterly report — specifically on whether concentrate output translates into sustainable cash flow.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
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