Almonty's Sangdong Output and 21-Year GTP Deal Reshape Revenue Outlook — Stock Still 42% Off April Peak
Published on 07/20/2026 at 16:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries is marking a decisive operational and structural turning point: the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea has begun production, a long-term offtake agreement has been dramatically expanded, and the company is exiting its home listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange to concentrate trading in New York and Frankfurt. Yet the shares, which hit a 52-week high of C$33.35 in April, have retreated roughly 42% and now trade near C$19.70. The disconnect between fundamental advances and market price highlights a tug-of-war between operational catalysts and broader risk-off sentiment.
The TSX delisting becomes effective July 31, 2026, with Almonty filing a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 17, signed by CEO Lewis Black. The company said the voluntary withdrawal reflects that the vast majority of its share trading now occurs on the Nasdaq, where the stock trades under the ticker ALM. The move completes a gradual shift that also saw headquarters relocated to Dillon, Montana in April, and Almonty added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices in late June.
Operationally, the start of production at Sangdong in early July underpins a sweeping expansion of the company's relationship with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP). The offtake contract has been extended to 21 years, with the volume rising 40% to 4.41 million MTU — covering roughly 90% of Sangdong's planned output. The price formula was improved by 6.3%, translating into at least US$30 million in additional annual revenue, according to Almonty. At current tungsten prices, the contract is expected to generate around US$490 million in yearly sales. A pre-existing ore stockpile of 139,700 tonnes, grading 0.25% tungsten oxide, adds an estimated US$68 million in value that is not yet reflected in production numbers. Neither a potential Phase II expansion nor a separate molybdenum project is included in those figures.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Analysts have responded by lifting their sights. Sphene Capital GmbH reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target to C$38.90 from C$37.40, pointing to the improved GTP terms as a game-changer for future cash flow. Analyst Peter Thilo Hasler called the recent share weakness a buying opportunity, noting 102.1% upside from the C$19.25 closing price used in his calculation. On the Nasdaq, a consensus of six analysts assigns an average target of US$21.88, with ratings split between one Strong Buy, four Buys and one Sell — a "Moderate Buy" overall. DA Davidson also raised its target by US$8 on July 10, though specific numbers were not detailed.
The financial picture is improving even as the company remains in the red. Almonty reported a first-quarter net loss of US$0.02 per share, a marked improvement from a loss of US$0.13 in the year-ago period, on revenue of US$18.52 million. The operating loss has narrowed considerably. Meanwhile, the company announced plans in early June to place convertible notes worth US$700 million, due in 2031 — a signal of management's confidence in the Sangdong ramp and its ability to service debt as production scales.
The stock's performance over the past month, however, tells a different story. After a 3.94% gain on Friday, July 17, that lifted the share price to C$19.25, the stock added another 2.34% on Monday to reach C$19.70. Yet over the trailing 30 days, Almonty has fallen 27.82%, and the gap from its April high now stands at 42.28%. Year to date, the stock remains up 59.49%, underscoring how much ground was gained before the correction. Market participants attribute some of the sell-off to a semiconductor rout and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East around July 20, which weighed on commodity-linked equities across Asia.
For investors, Almonty's trajectory now hinges on execution: Sangdong must deliver the tonnes, and the GTP revenue stream must materialize as modeled. The TSX delisting will sharpen the focus on Nasdaq liquidity and U.S. investor sentiment, while the expanded offtake contract provides a visible revenue floor for two decades. The gap between the share price and the analyst targets suggests that the market is demanding proof of production before repricing the stock to reflect the full potential of the world-class tungsten asset.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 20 July
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