Almonty's Sangdong Production Comes Online, but the Stock's Slide Highlights a Valuation Reckoning
Published on 07/20/2026 at 07:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries marked two critical operational achievements this month: the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea delivered its first saleable concentrate on July 1, and the company expanded its long-term offtake deal with Global Tungsten & Powders to cover 21 years and roughly 90% of Phase I output. Yet the stock continues to retreat from its April peak, caught between a production story that is finally delivering and a valuation that had already priced in years of growth.
The expanded contract, signed July 7, lifts the volume by 40% to 4.41 million metric tonne units and extends the term from 15 to 21 years. Almonty said the improved pricing should boost annual contract revenue by at least $30 million, bringing total annual value to about $490 million at current APT prices. That backstop covers the bulk of Phase I output and provides a multi-decade revenue floor — a rare level of visibility for a junior miner.
Yet the market's response has been measured at best. The stock closed on Friday at C$19.25, up 3.94% on the day, but that bounce did little to repair a month-long slide. Over the past 30 days, the equity has lost roughly 25.5%, and it remains 42.28% below the 52-week high of C$33.35 reached on April 17. The drop has pushed the shares just 1.5% above the 200-day moving average of C$18.96, a line that could become a key support test in the weeks ahead.
The pressure has drawn in short sellers. Data from July 18 shows short positions climbed 54% from the prior month, with days-to-cover reaching 2.35 — a sign that a growing cohort of investors sees further downside. The 50-day moving average stands at C$24.61, a full 22% above the current price, and the relative strength index at 38.1 signals persistent selling pressure despite Friday's gain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
What concerns analysts more is the valuation multiples the stock had accumulated during its three-year, roughly 2,100% rally. Almonty trades at 15.6 times book value, while the average metals and mining company trades at about 2.5 times. Even a peer group that includes some highly valued outliers reaches only 140.6 times — and Almonty sits well beyond that. The price-to-book metric is especially telling for a capital-intensive miner whose value depends on its mine assets. A premium of this magnitude leaves almost no margin for error in production, costs, or contract execution.
Adding to the crosscurrents, Almonty has decided to delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange as of July 31 and will trade solely on the Nasdaq under the ticker ALM. Management cited the fact that the vast majority of daily volume already flows through the US exchange, making the dual listing an unnecessary administrative burden. The move comes just days after the company was added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices, which should boost visibility among institutional investors and index-tracking funds.
The annualized 30-day volatility sits at 84.83% — an extraordinary level that reflects deep nervousness around the name. In a broader valuation review, Almonty scored only 3 out of 6 points, landing in a gray zone where it is neither a clear bargain nor a definitive overvaluation by every measure.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What may tip the balance in the coming months is the pace of ramp-up at Sangdong. The mine is now producing and the offtake deal is locked in, but the stock's 59.49% year-to-date gain and 209.49% advance over the past 12 months already reflect those milestones. The next set of quarterly results and operational updates will show whether the real-world execution can catch up to the expectations baked into the share price. For now, Almonty has delivered on its promises — but the market is asking for more than just promises.
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