Almonty’s Short Sellers Retreat 41% as Record Cash Flow and Tungsten Rally Set Stage for Sangdong Vote
Published on 05/17/2026 at 22:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The mood around Almonty Industries has shifted sharply in recent weeks, and it shows up in more than just the stock price. Short sellers have pulled back in force, trimming their positions by 41.1 percent to 3.26 million shares by the end of April, down from more than 5.5 million. The days-to-cover ratio now stands at just 0.7, a far cry from the heavy bearish bets that weighed on the stock earlier this year. At a market capitalisation of roughly US$4.95 billion, the retreat is a clear signal that the bears are losing conviction even as the equity takes a breather from its dizzying rally.
That pullback has been sharp in the near term. On Friday, Almonty’s shares closed at C$24.02 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, shedding 4.68 per cent on the day and wrapping up a week that saw a decline of 10.64 per cent. The stock now sits 25.1 per cent below its all-time high of C$32.07 and is trading 8.58 per cent under its short-term moving average. Yet the context matters: since the start of the year, Almonty remains nearly 100 per cent higher, and over the past twelve months the gain is a staggering 545.7 per cent. After a run like that, consolidation is hardly a surprise — but it does sharpen the focus on what comes next.
What makes the pullback easier to digest is the operational progress beneath the surface. Almonty delivered a standout first quarter, with revenue surging to US$25.4 million — a 221 per cent jump from the US$7.9 million reported in the same period last year. The company’s adjusted EBITDA came in at US$6.1 million, and operating cash flow reached US$9.7 million, a critical milestone for a name that has long been viewed as a development-stage story. The bottom line remained in the red at a net loss of US$5.3 million, or US$0.02 per share, weighed down by non-cash revaluation charges of US$8.4 million. Still, the cash flow inflection is the kind of data point that shifts analyst models.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
At least one analyst has already reacted, lifting the price target by 13.23 per cent to US$16.41. The consensus target sits at US$18.38, a level that, if the current Canadian-dollar exchange rate is applied, leaves some upside from Friday’s close. Institutional investors are also putting money behind the thesis. Cooper Creek Partners boosted its stake by 110.4 per cent to roughly 4.78 million shares, while the Swiss National Bank and Manufacturers Life added to their holdings. Fidelity now holds 18.28 million shares, representing 6.5 per cent of the float.
The next major catalyst arrives on May 20, when CEO Lewis Black presents at the virtual International Investment Forum. With the first-quarter numbers now in the rear-view mirror, the spotlight will turn squarely to the company’s mine portfolio — especially Sangdong in South Korea, the crown jewel of Almonty’s expansion plan. Shareholders will vote on Phase 2 of the project at the annual meeting on June 9 in Toronto. The board is seeking approval to scale processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027, effectively doubling the original plan. If greenlit, Sangdong could supply around 40 per cent of the tungsten demand outside China — a figure that carries enormous weight given Beijing’s tightening export controls and tungsten’s critical role in electronics, industrial machinery and defence.
Tungsten prices provide a powerful tailwind. Ammonium paratungstate in Rotterdam is trading at US$3,050 per metric tonne unit in May, up more than 200 per cent since the start of the year. Starting in January 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten entirely from non-Chinese supply chains. Almonty is already ahead of that curve, with a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders and a binding deal with Tungsten Parts Wyoming for at least 40 tonnes of tungsten oxide per month. The company’s Montana-based Gentung-Browns Lake project, with mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes, is targeting first production in the second half of 2026 at an annual rate of 140,000 metric tonne units. Nearly half of that planned output is already spoken for by US buyers.
Beyond the Sangdong vote, the near-term calendar is packed. On June 1, Jorge Beristain steps in as CFO, bringing Wall Street experience to a management team that is increasingly under the microscope. Between the commodity backdrop, the operational milestones and the lingering weight of an extraordinary rally, Almonty’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war. The short sellers may have cut their losses, but the market is still waiting for the next piece of execution evidence before putting the full story back into the price.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 17 May
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