Almonty Shares Receive Upgraded Price Targets Amid Tight Tungsten Market

Significant upward revisions to price targets for Almonty Industries Inc. have been issued this week by two separate research firms. The moves follow the company's operational milestone in South Korea and are driven by a powerful rally in the price of tungsten, a critical metal for which supply is becoming increasingly constrained.

Market analysts have substantially increased their valuation models for the mining company. The updates came after Almonty reported the commencement of active mining operations at its Sangdong project in December 2025.

• Sphene Capital revised its target on Tuesday, lifting it to 20.10 CAD from a previous 13.50 CAD.
• DA Davidson followed on Wednesday, raising its price objective to 18.00 USD from 12.00 USD.

A primary catalyst cited by both firms is the surge in the tungsten reference price, which recently traded around 1,250 USD per MTU (Metric Ton Unit). This key benchmark broke through the 1,000 USD/MTU threshold in mid-January, signaling a major shift in market dynamics.

Supply Constraints Fuel Price Rally

In its research note, Sphene Capital characterized the tungsten price increase as "unprecedented," linking it directly to a tightening global supply. The analysis highlights that China, which controls over 80% of global mine production, tightened export rules and production quotas early in 2025. This policy shift has particularly restricted the availability of tungsten intermediates like APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) to Western markets, thereby strengthening pricing power for non-Chinese producers.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

DA Davidson echoed the sentiment regarding supply, pointing to robust demand against a backdrop of limited global mine output. The firm adjusted its earnings model to incorporate higher spot price assumptions, justifying its upgraded valuation.

Operational Progress at Sangdong Mine

The recent analyst reassessments are also grounded in tangible operational progress. Almonty's transition from construction to pre-production at the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea was marked by the first delivery of ore to the Run-of-Mine (ROM) pad in December 2025.

DA Davidson anticipates the project will advance toward commercial production by the end of the first quarter of 2026, positioning it to enter a favorable market environment. Sphene's updated valuation model incorporates the net present value of Almonty's producing and development assets, which include Sangdong, the operating Panasqueira mine in Portugal, and the Gantung project.

Market Dynamics: Defense Demand Meets Scarcity

Current market conditions present a confluence of factors supporting higher prices. Analysts note rising defense-driven demand—tungsten is essential for heavy armor and munitions—coupled with strictly limited supply. The intensified Chinese export controls have reportedly drawn down spot inventories to historically low levels, underscoring the strategic importance of new, non-Chinese sources of supply for Western industrial and defense supply chains.