ASML Lands a Historic Memory Chip Order, but the China Export Shadow Grows Longer

Investors in the Dutch lithography giant got a welcome reprieve this week when a massive capital commitment from South Korea helped snap a two-day losing streak. SK Hynix, the country’s second-biggest memory chipmaker, unveiled plans to spend roughly $8.6 billion on ASML’s cutting-edge machines by December 2027. The order, which Bernstein analyst David Dao estimates will comprise around 30 new extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems, will equip the M15X plant for high-bandwidth memory and the Yongin cluster for advanced DRAM production — both critical cogs in the AI supply chain.

The bounce came just a day after ASML shares were caught in a broader sector rout triggered by preliminary results from Samsung Electronics. The South Korean giant delivered solid profit figures, but they landed well below the market’s loftiest AI-driven expectations. The disappointment ricocheted through Asian and European trading floors, sending ASML’s stock sliding before it partially recovered to €1,558.40 on Wednesday — still about 10% below its 52-week peak of €1,748. Since the start of the year, however, the shares have climbed roughly 58%, underpinned by an order backlog of €38.8 billion and a steady drumbeat of AI-fueled demand from end customers like TSMC, which recently reported a record revenue start to 2026.

Yet the tailwinds from the AI boom are increasingly competing with headwinds from Washington. US lawmakers are pushing the MATCH Act, a bill designed to slash China’s access to critical chipmaking technology. New restrictions could soon cover not only ASML’s most advanced EUV tools but also older deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems and even service contracts. That would put as much as 20% of the company’s planned system sales in China at immediate risk. ASML had already pencilled in a decline in the region’s revenue share from 33% to around 20% this year — a projection that predates the latest political moves. The escalating regulatory threat has JPMorgan analysts warning of a potential 10% earnings hit.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

Complicating matters, ASML no longer publishes quarterly order intake figures. That means investors must rely heavily on delivery data and management guidance to gauge demand momentum. The annualized volatility stands at 64%, a level that leaves the richly valued stock little room to absorb negative surprises. For the second quarter, which ends in June, the company has flagged slightly weaker sequential performance, but the full-year target remains a revenue band of €36 billion to €40 billion with a gross margin near 52%.

The next major inflection point arrives on July 15, 2026, when ASML reports its second-quarter results. Analysts will be scrutinising whether the SK Hynix mega-order represents a turning point for the memory segment or simply a one-off. More crucially, management must convince the market that its 2026 goals are achievable even as Washington tightens the screws. If the China export curbs remain contained and the delivery ramp of new High-NA EUV systems proceeds on schedule, the AI narrative can likely carry the stock back toward its record highs. But should the political climate force a downward revision to the guidance, the current valuation — built on growth expectations of a once-in-a-generation chip cycle — could deflate sharply. The battle between a Korean windfall and a geopolitical storm is now entering its most decisive phase.

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