ASML’s €188 Million Weekly Buyback Accelerates as Quarterly Orders Hit Record Levels
Published on 07/21/2026 at 02:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch chipmaking equipment supplier is sending a clear signal of self-confidence even as its shares trade near a one-month low. ASML spent approximately €188 million repurchasing its own stock between July 13 and July 17, with the pace of buying accelerating sharply in the final two days of that window. The buyback unfolded in a week that also saw the company report a blockbuster second quarter and lift its full-year 2026 revenue forecast for the second time in six months — a combination that underscores the disconnect between short-term market sentiment and the underlying strength of the business.
On the trading floor, ASML’s shares closed Monday at €1,526.00, down 0.13% on the day and 9.68% lower over the past 30 days. That puts the stock roughly 12.7% below its all-time high of €1,748.00 reached in late June and only marginally above its 50-day moving average of €1,508.87. The company used that dip to step up its purchases: after modest buys of 10,302 and 10,292 shares on July 13 and 14 respectively, ASML snapped up 49,560 shares on July 16 and another 51,148 on July 17. The weighted average prices for those transactions ranged from €1,527.40 to €1,576.35 per share — in several cases above the prevailing market level at the time of execution.
The repurchase activity is part of a broader €1.1 billion buyback program for 2026–2028 that was launched on January 28, 2026. In the second quarter alone, the company had already spent roughly €1.1 billion on its own equity, and the latest weekly data shows no sign of letting up. Alongside the buyback, ASML will pay an interim dividend of €1.88 per share on August 5, offering shareholders a dual channel of capital return even as the stock takes a breather.
That stock pause stands in sharp contrast to the operational momentum the company unveiled in its second-quarter report. Net sales came in at €9.3 billion, beating the consensus estimate of €8.8 billion and climbing 21% year on year. Net profit reached €2.9 billion, also above expectations of €2.6 billion, while gross margin held at 54%. Operating profit rose 30% to €3.46 billion, pushing the operating margin from 35% to 37%. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet cited “exceptionally strong order intake” and pointed to revenue growth of more than 25% in advanced logic chips and over 75% in memory chips.
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The strength in orders prompted ASML to raise its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion, up from the previous band of €36 billion to €40 billion. That marks the second upgrade this year. To meet the AI-driven surge in demand, the company is expanding its production capacity: a 30% increase in both EUV and DUV system output is planned for 2027, with a further 30% expansion in 2028 under evaluation. For this year, ASML intends to build 65 low-NA EUV machines and roughly 130 DUV immersion units. As a token of success, the company is granting a one-time stock award of €20,000 to each of its approximately 45,000 employees.
A tangible validation of ASML’s technology came from Intel, which is using the €400 million High-NA EUV lithography system in volume production of its Panther Lake chips on the 18A process. Intel’s finance chief said Panther Lake output in the second quarter increased six to seven times sequentially. The direct endorsement from a major customer bolsters the case that ASML’s most advanced tools are becoming indispensable for leading-edge chipmaking.
That momentum has analysts circling a trillion-dollar valuation for the first European company to approach that milestone. Barclays, Susquehanna and Bernstein have all raised their 12-month price targets to above $2,600 per share, implying roughly 49% upside from current levels. Bernstein specifically set a €2,500 target, while JPMorgan sees $2,400. At a market capitalisation of around $700 billion, ASML trades at approximately 38 times expected 2027 earnings. Carolyn Bell of Stonehage Fleming sees the trillion-dollar mark as achievable, though Antoine Hucher of Aviva calls the scenario possible but volatile. John Lamb of Capital Group disclosed holding $35 billion in ASML shares, about 5% of the company.
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Institutional positioning remains mixed. Allspring Global Investments trimmed its stake by 13.4% in the first quarter to 22,410 shares, while Allen Investment Management cut by 17.6% to 62,857 shares. On the other side, Arrowstreet Capital, UBS Asset Management and AQR Capital boosted their positions by 195.8%, 153.1% and 141.1% respectively. Overall, institutions hold roughly 26% of outstanding shares.
Risk factors persist. The proposed MATCH Act could tighten restrictions on exports to China, a market expected to account for about 20% of 2026 revenue. Analysts also flag potential headwinds from a slowdown in cloud providers’ capital expenditure, supply-chain disruptions and rising competition from Chinese chip technology. The stock currently trades at €1,536.20, about 12.1% below its 52-week high, yet still showing a year-to-date gain of 66.71% — a reminder that even a sharp pullback looks modest against the AI-driven rally that has redefined the lithography leader’s trajectory this year.
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