ASML’s Geopolitical Tightrope: New Chip Orders from a Possible Apple-Intel Deal Counterbalance Export Curbs

The Dutch lithography giant is navigating a paradox. Its stock sits at a 52?week high of €1,351.60, having surged 36.76% since the start of the year, even as Washington and The Hague clash over a law that could severely restrict servicing of ASML machines already installed in China. Meanwhile, a potential foundry partnership between Apple and Intel promises to soak up billions of euros in new EUV orders, shifting the market’s focus from the most advanced High?NA scanners to the tried?and?tested Low?NA fleet.

Apple and Intel are reportedly discussing a foundry arrangement that would see Intel manufacture Apple chips. Bank of America estimates the deal could be worth up to $10 billion in total. For ASML, the implications are direct: Intel would need additional EUV lithography systems to ramp up capacity. In a base case excluding the iPhone, the bank expects ASML orders of roughly €1.8 billion. If Apple’s mobile processor were included, the figure could reach €4.6 billion, representing about 15 EUV machines. Which Apple chips Intel would build — and whether the production node would be 18A or 14A — remains unclear, but the mere prospect has already lifted sentiment.

The stock reflected part of that optimism on a recent session, trading at €1,310 and gaining 1.33% on the day, with a year?to?date advance of 32.55%. The more recent close at €1,351.60 underscores how the broader AI narrative continues to override geopolitical noise.

That noise, however, is getting louder. The Dutch trade minister Sjoerd Sjoerdsma has formally objected in Washington to the proposed MATCH Act, which would extend U.S. export controls beyond the most advanced EUV and high?end DUV tools to simpler DUV lithography systems previously accessible to Chinese customers. Even more contentious is a provision that could restrict servicing of existing machines in China. With China accounting for roughly 33% of ASML’s revenue in 2025, the economic risk is substantial. A committee of the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to debate the bill on May 19. Should it advance in its current form, the narrative around ASML could shift from pure AI euphoria to a reassessment of how much China exposure is politically tolerable.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

For now, though, the demand from AI?driven logic and memory chips is so robust that ASML can barely keep up. The company expects net revenues of €36 billion to €40 billion for 2026, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. Bank of America has reiterated its “Buy” rating and lifted its price target to €1,710 from €1,598, citing higher Low?NA EUV shipments and improved earnings estimates. The bank now forecasts 65 Low?NA EUV deliveries in 2026, rising to 85 in 2027. ASML itself has guided for at least 60 Low?NA systems in 2026 and 80 the following year.

Buyers include TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron and SK Hynix. The order backlog stood at €38.8 billion at the end of the first quarter, during which the company posted revenue of €8.77 billion and net profit of €2.76 billion.

The timing of the Apple?Intel deal could prove pivotal. TSMC has delayed adoption of ASML’s most advanced High?NA EUV machines, citing high costs — each unit costs more than €350 million — and sufficient performance from existing Low?NA tools. Bernstein sees no surprise in TSMC’s decision, noting the technology wasn’t planned for the A14 node anyway. Intel, by contrast, is positioning itself as a High?NA pioneer for its 14A foundry node. Samsung has also secured an additional High?NA scanner for early 2026.

Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

For ASML, the near?term upside lies squarely with Low?NA EUV. The company’s replaceability in the chip supply chain is minimal, and the AI boom continues to support strong pricing and margins despite export constraints. The next catalyst, however, may not be the High?NA debate but the concrete shape of the Apple?Intel agreement. If it covers large Apple chips, Intel’s need for EUV capacity will expand noticeably. Even without the iPhone, the Low?NA thesis remains intact — but the political cloud over the China business will not dissipate overnight.

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