ASML’s High-NA Momentum and €38.8 Billion Order Backlog Override Dividend Adjustment
Published on 07/27/2026 at 14:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML shares climbed 2.26 percent to €1,580.60 on Monday, extending a rally that began after Intel’s blockbuster quarterly report jolted the semiconductor equipment sector. The Dutch lithography giant’s stock is now trading nearly 3 percent above its 50-day moving average of €1,534.81, within striking distance of the €1,748.00 52-week high set on June 30.
The catalyst traces back to Intel’s decision to lift its 2026 capital expenditure budget from $18 billion to $20 billion. Intel’s finance chief cited robust customer demand and pledged to secure tool orders from suppliers aggressively. The chipmaker’s second-quarter revenue hit $16.1 billion, a 25 percent surge that demolished the $14.5 billion analyst consensus. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.42 nearly doubled the $0.22 forecast, propelled by a 59 percent jump in data-center revenue to $6.3 billion.
Intel Foundry has already deployed ASML’s High-NA EUV lithography machines — the TWINSCAN EXE:5200B model — at its Hillsboro facility to mass-produce Panther Lake processors using the 18A process node. This production capacity helped Intel clear delivery backlogs that had plagued its computer and laptop chip supply since the start of the year. The direct equipment link means ASML’s gains are grounded in real orders, not just sentiment.
The positive news flow coincided with a technical event that would normally weigh on the stock: ASML shares began trading ex-dividend on Monday, carrying a €1.88 interim dividend adjustment. In typical circumstances that would shave roughly 0.12 percent off the share price, but the fundamental tailwinds overwhelmed the mechanical effect.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
ASML’s own second-quarter performance reinforces the bullish narrative. The company shipped 86 lithography systems in the period, up from 67 in the first quarter, generating net revenue of €9.3 billion and profit of €2.9 billion. Management raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion. The order book now stands at €38.8 billion, providing a cushion against any near-term demand fluctuations.
Adoption of the €400 million High-NA EUV scanners remains uneven across the industry. Intel is the only customer running the machines in commercial production. TSMC has opted to extend its use of older Low-NA technology for the upcoming A14 node. Samsung operates two High-NA units solely for research purposes, while SK Hynix brought its first production scanner of this generation online in September 2025. CEO Christophe Fouquet has outlined plans to boost Low-NA EUV and DUV system capacity by 30 percent by 2027, accompanied by a minimum 10 percent price increase on DUV tools.
A structural risk lurks in the supply chain. ASML’s 2025 annual report identifies Zeiss SMT as the sole supplier of optical columns for EUV scanners — a single point of failure that would halt production if disrupted. ASML purchased €4.41 billion from Zeiss in 2025, up from €3.95 billion the prior year and €3.33 billion in 2023. It also holds €1.91 billion in loans to Zeiss and a 24.9 percent stake in Zeiss SMT, which yielded a €320.5 million dividend in 2025. Zeiss has expanded its Oberkochen facility by roughly 25,000 square meters, with staff moving into the new building in July 2026, four years after the groundbreaking.
Geopolitical headwinds add another layer of uncertainty. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned ASML representatives that components or transport equipment for EUV machines may have reached China. ASML denies the allegation, with Fouquet pointing to strict internal controls and technological barriers that prevent unauthorized use. The US government has invested in xLight, a startup developing alternative light-source technology, and a bipartisan bill circulating in Congress would ban shipments of older DUV systems to China — a market ASML has used to maintain technological distance from Chinese customers.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Institutional investors are placing their bets regardless. Hedge fund Lone Pine Capital counted ASML among its most heavily increased positions in the first quarter of 2026, while Coatue Management built a new stake over the same period. The analyst consensus leans heavily toward buy ratings, with price targets varying widely but the median implying double-digit upside from current levels.
Retail investors have remained more cautious. A segment of individual traders continued to rate ASML and comparable chip-equipment stocks as bearish through Thursday, reflecting lingering doubts about the durability of the AI-driven investment cycle. Whether the fundamental data will shift that sentiment remains an open question, but the combination of Intel’s capex expansion, ASML’s record order book, and the technological moat in High-NA EUV gives the bulls considerable ammunition.
Ad
Asml Stock: New Analysis - 27 July
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
