ASML’s July Reckoning: Can Memory-Sector Billions Translate into Real Orders?
04.07.2026 - 00:51:22 | boerse-global.de
The coming weeks will determine whether ASML’s run to a €663 billion market capitalisation is built on solid chips or speculative vapour. The Dutch lithography monopoly has booked a year-to-date gain of roughly 64%—driven not by fresh corporate announcements, but by the ambitious spending plans of its largest customers. Yet the next inflection point arrives in mid-July, when the company reports second-quarter earnings and reveals whether its own order book actually validates the euphoria.
The stock closed Friday at €1,624.20, up 4.79% on the day and within striking distance of its 52-week high of €1,748, set on 30 June. Earlier in the week, shares had surged 5.16% to €1,550 before climbing further. The stock now trades roughly 12% above its 50-day moving average of €1,442 and 42% above the 200-day line—gaps that leave the door wide open for a sharp correction if the data disappoint.
The spending cascade from memory giants
Last month, Micron blew past expectations for its fiscal third quarter and raised its capital expenditure guidance for the fiscal year from $25 billion to $27 billion. Days later, Samsung and SK Hynix jointly announced plans to invest $520 billion over several years in new memory fabrication facilities. Because memory makers rely heavily on ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, each dollar of investment is effectively a tailwind for the Dutch supplier’s order pipeline.
ASML itself has mapped out a path to deliver at least 60 low-NA EUV systems in 2026 and 80 in 2027. CEO Christophe Fouquet recently stated that demand still outstrips supply, with customers signing long-term contracts to secure production slots more than a year out. The company’s revenue target for 2026 stands between €36 billion and €40 billion, a revision upwards after first-quarter results.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Why valuation hawks are nervous
The bull case rests on the persistence of this spending cycle. If the July report confirms that order intake accelerated in the second quarter—reflecting the Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix announcements—the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio of 66.2 could be justified by future profit growth. That multiple already sits below some peers but remains well above the estimated fair value of 54.4, according to Simply Wall St.
Bears point to the stretched technical picture. The annualised 30-day volatility is nearly 63%, meaning the shares can swing violently on a single data point. Moreover, the relative strength index sits at a neutral 54.4, leaving room for both further gains and a sudden pullback. A return to the 50-day line—roughly 12% below current levels—would constitute a textbook correction.
The China wildcard
Neither camp has a handle on the geopolitical risk that could overshadow any positive earnings surprise. The US Congress is debating the “MATCH Act”, legislation that would tighten export controls on advanced chip-making equipment shipped to China. ASML currently derives about 20% of its annual revenue from Chinese customers. If the act passes, the low end of the 2026 revenue guidance could come under pressure, and the entire growth narrative would face a structural headwind.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The single number that matters
All eyes now turn to the Q2 report, due before the market opens in mid-July. The most closely watched figure will be net bookings—specifically whether the order intake echoes the investment promises made by Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. A strong reading would reinforce the argument that ASML’s pricing power is cemented for years and could drive the stock past the €1,748 record. A miss, especially if accompanied by any escalation in China trade restrictions, could trigger a rapid retreat to the 50-day moving average—or lower.
ASML has not issued any company-specific news since the April quarterly update. The entire move since then has been powered by external signals. The July report will reveal whether those signals are already reflected in actual purchase orders or whether the stock has simply run ahead of itself.
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