ASML’s Record Guidance and Intel Milestone Can’t Shield It From the Kimi-K3 Shockwave
Published on 07/20/2026 at 07:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML’s stock slid 2.51% to €1,528.00 on Friday, shedding some of the glow from a week that saw the Dutch lithography giant deliver blockbuster quarterly results and a material proof point that its most advanced chipmaking machine is ready for prime time. The pullback had little to do with the company’s own momentum. Instead, it was a byproduct of a broader tech rout triggered by a Chinese artificial intelligence surprise that sent investors scrambling out of semiconductor names across the board.
The catalyst was the launch of Moonshot AI’s Kimi-K3 model, which rattled a market already on edge about stretched valuations in the AI supply chain. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index suffered its worst weekly loss in more than a year, with July alone carving out an 18% decline. TSMC fell over 3% on Friday, Nvidia dropped 2.2%, and the three major U.S. indices all ended the week in the red. “The chip story is over because the AI story is not over yet,” CFRA chief strategist Sam Stovall quipped, describing an industry that has run ahead of its own support lines.
The setback for ASML’s shares comes just days after the company released second-quarter 2026 figures that beat internal targets. Net sales hit €9.3 billion, net profit came in at €2.9 billion, and gross margin climbed to 54.0% — above management’s own forecast. On the back of the strong order intake and customers accelerating capacity build-outs, ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion, up from a prior span of €36 billion to €40 billion. The margin outlook was also lifted, to between 54% and 56%.
The same week brought a breakthrough on the technology front. Intel Foundry began volume production of its Core Ultra 3 processors — code-named Panther Lake and built on the 18A process — using ASML’s High-NA EUV lithography system. The milestone validates that the industry’s most expensive and complex chipmaking tool can deliver at industrial scale, and it paves the way for the finer geometries needed in next-generation AI chips. The deployment is more than a technical footnote; it locks in a multiyear upgrade cycle for ASML’s highest-margin equipment.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
To meet the surging demand, ASML is expanding its own production capacity. Low-NA EUV system output is slated to rise 30% in 2027, with a similar increase under consideration for 2028. The company is also weighing capacity additions for its DUV immersion tools. The service business, too, is outperforming: Installed Base Management generated €2.8 billion in revenue in the second quarter, running ahead of plan, and ASML expects growth of more than 30% for the full year 2026.
Yet structural risks remain. China’s share of ASML’s revenue is projected to fall to around 20% in 2026 from 27% last year, driven by tightening U.S. export restrictions on chipmaking technology destined for the country. ASML is also considering price increases for Low-NA EUV systems shipped after the end of 2028, a move that could further boost per-unit margins but may also add to geopolitical friction.
The stock’s reaction on Friday — sliding despite the guidance upgrade and the Intel validation — underscores the tension between company-specific fundamentals and sector-wide sentiment. ASML had initially jumped more than 7% on the quarterly release on July 15, only to give back those gains and close the day slightly lower. Analysts have largely held their ground, with several major banks raising price targets after the results. But some had warned that a price-to-earnings multiple around 50 — on par with the dot-com-era heights — left the shares vulnerable to any shift in the AI narrative.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Despite the weekly dip, ASML’s year-to-date gain stands at 65.82%, and the stock remains 12.59% below its all-time high of €1,748.00 set on June 30. The 200-day moving average sits at €1,170.60, well below the current level, suggesting the long-term uptrend is still intact. Friday’s sell-off reads less as a rejection of ASML’s own trajectory and more as a reminder that no stock, not even Europe’s most valuable technology company, can fully insulate itself from the mood swings of a market suddenly questioning how long the AI investment boom will last.
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