ASML's Revenue Forecast Jumps 16% as AI Chip Demand Overwhelms Expectations
Published on 07/26/2026 at 17:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant ASML has delivered a far more bullish outlook for 2026 than markets anticipated, raising its revenue forecast by roughly 16% on the back of what management describes as "extremely strong" demand for chipmaking tools tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The Veldhoven-based company now expects 2026 sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, up sharply from the previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion. The upgrade comes as customers including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel place orders for lithography systems at a pace that has surprised even the company's own leadership.
Shares closed Friday at €1,545.60, down 2.31% on the day but still up 67.73% year-to-date. The stock sits roughly 11.58% below its late-June record high, a pullback that has prompted some investors to question whether the rally has run its course.
Q2 Results Beat Expectations Across the Board
The improved guidance follows a second quarter that comfortably exceeded analyst estimates. ASML reported net revenue of €9.3 billion, well ahead of the roughly €8.8 billion consensus figure. Net profit came in at €2.9 billion, while gross margin reached 54% — also above the company's own forecast.
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The margin outperformance was driven largely by the installed base management segment, where upgrades and maintenance of existing systems proved particularly profitable. For the third quarter, ASML expects revenue between €11 billion and €12 billion, continuing the industry's recovery from last year's transitional period.
High-NA EUV Reaches Production Milestone
A critical development underpinning the bullish outlook: Intel Foundry has become the first customer to move next-generation high-NA EUV systems into volume production. The technology is being used for specific layers of Intel's "Panther Lake" processors, built on the Intel 18A process.
The achievement is a landmark for the semiconductor industry, proving that these systems — priced at roughly €400 million each — are ready for commercial deployment. High-NA EUV is expected to become essential for chips below 2 nanometers, further cementing ASML's monopoly in high-end lithography.
Capacity Expansion Underway
To meet surging demand from major foundry clients, ASML plans to boost low-NA EUV production capacity by 30% through 2027. Management is also evaluating a further expansion of similar magnitude for 2028 to keep pace with the global buildout of data centers.
The China business presents a nuanced picture. Despite ongoing export restrictions, absolute revenue from Chinese customers continues to rise. Its share of total sales is declining only because other regions are growing even faster — a dynamic that suggests geopolitical headwinds are manageable rather than crippling.
Valuation: Not Cheap, Not Overpriced
A valuation analysis published over the weekend paints a mixed picture. ASML trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 56.4, close to the industry average of about 57.9 and the peer-group median of 57.5. A bespoke fair-value comparison that accounts for the company's size, margins, and risk profile arrives at a fair P/E of around 55.2, meaning the current multiple sits only marginally above that level.
The takeaway: ASML is not dramatically overvalued, but it is no bargain either. The stock has gained nearly 150% over the past twelve months, shifting the debate from pure momentum to questions of sustainability.
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Analyst Sentiment Remains Constructive
Despite the valuation concerns, Wall Street continues to back the stock. UBS, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley all reaffirmed positive ratings on ASML in the third week of July, apparently viewing export risks as a known and already-priced factor rather than a fresh threat.
Shareholders can also look forward to a dividend of €1.88 per share, scheduled for late July 2026. Friday's close left the stock just above its 50-day moving average of €1,528.50, suggesting the near-term trend remains intact despite the session's decline.
The key variables for the second half of the year: the pace of high-NA EUV adoption and the trajectory of China export policy. Both will determine whether ASML's current valuation reflects opportunity or optimism that has already been fully priced in.
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