AST SpaceMobile’s Twin Engines: A Japan Joint Venture and Bigger Satellites to Drive the Next Phase
29.06.2026 - 17:35:13 | boerse-global.de
For investors in AST SpaceMobile, the story is no longer just about technology demonstrations or launch schedules—it’s about piecing together the commercial puzzle. Two fresh developments, one corporate and one orbital, underscore how the company is trying to turn its direct-to-device satellite network into a revenue machine. The market has responded with characteristic whiplash, but the real catalysts are still taking shape.
Rakuten, Japan’s e-commerce and telecom giant, is moving past a memorandum of understanding and into a formal joint venture structure with AST SpaceMobile. Reports in Nikkei and Yomiuri, later picked up by DigiTimes, indicate the pair will form a new entity with near-equal stakes, with Rakuten taking the operational lead. Service would begin in phases from late 2026—a year later than the initial February 2024 target, but now backed by a clearer rollout plan. Rakuten has flagged mountain communities, remote islands and disaster zones as the obvious first markets, precisely the places where terrestrial networks fail. The stock jumped nearly eleven percent on the news to €69.60, recovering some of its recent steep losses.
Yet the stock remains far from its 52-week high of €114.60, touched in late May 2026. Over the past 30 days, it has shed almost 29%. The relative strength index stood at 46.8 on the day of the announcement—not oversold, but far from overbought. More tellingly, the shares trade below both the 50-day moving average of €74.70 and the 200-day moving average of €71.09, indicating that the technical picture has not yet turned bullish. The annualized 30-day volatility sits at above 124%, making sharp swings the norm rather than the exception.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying AST SpaceMobile?
Meanwhile, the satellite constellation is accelerating. BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 have been fully operational since June 2026, and the next trio—BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13—is scheduled to lift off from Cape Canaveral in the first half of August. These satellites belong to the Block-2 generation and carry antennas spanning roughly 220 square metres, far larger than their predecessors. AST SpaceMobile expects that upgrade to nearly double the peak data rate from the current 98.9 Mbps, aiming for as much as 200 Mbps—a figure that dwarfs the roughly 4 Mbps that Starlink Mobile currently offers. The company is already producing units through BlueBird 37 and remains on track to have roughly 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
The financials reflect both promise and pressure. In the first quarter of 2026, AST SpaceMobile generated €14.7 million in revenue, and management has held to a full-year forecast of €150 million to €200 million. For 2027, the company is pointing toward roughly €1 billion, contingent on the constellation scaling as planned. The balance sheet shows €3.5 billion in cash against €3.02 billion in debt—a healthy cash buffer but also a reminder of the capital intensity required. Deutsche Bank recently cut its price target from €117 to €106, citing an explosion of the New Glenn rocket that, while not directly impacting AST SpaceMobile, highlighted the sector’s inherent risks. The company uses multiple launch providers and is not dependent on a single vehicle.
Japan would mark the first fully commercial market for AST SpaceMobile’s direct-connect service, but the joint venture has not yet been officially confirmed. Regulatory approvals, the final contract structure and a precise phased schedule are all pending. Until those details are locked in, the stock’s journey will continue to be shaped by launch timetables, technical milestones and the ever-present volatility that comes with betting on a pre-revenue space pioneer. The August launch will deliver the clearest test yet of whether the Block-2 hardware can live up to its billing—and whether the market can look past the near-term noise.
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AST SpaceMobile Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
Fresh AST SpaceMobile information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
