Barrick Mining’s $3 Billion Buyback and Gold-Fueled Profit Surge Mask Deepening Mali Disruptions

The gold price glow has prompted Barrick Mining to roll out its most aggressive capital return programme yet — a $3 billion share repurchase authorization alongside a $0.175 per share quarterly dividend — even as operational cracks widen at one of its flagship West African assets. The dual announcement landed as the company posted a first-quarter earnings bonanza that left analysts scrambling to update their models.

Adjusted earnings per share soared 180% year-on-year to $0.98, while revenue jumped 67% to $5.22 billion. Attributable EBITDA more than doubled to $2.76 billion, driven almost entirely by a blistering gold price environment. Barrick’s average realized price hit $4,823 per ounce in the period, and all-in sustaining costs actually edged lower to $1,708 per ounce, generating an operating cash flow measured in the billions.

Management described the current share price as offering “exceptional value,” a telling phrase given the competing demands on the company’s capital. The buyback, split between the Toronto Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange over the next two years, will run in parallel with a planned initial public offering of Barrick’s North American gold assets, targeted for completion by the end of 2026.

Those North American operations remain the bedrock of the group’s output, contributing 457,000 ounces in the first quarter alone. The joint venture in Nevada posted record underground mining performance, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. The pending spin-off is expected to unlock further shareholder value, though the parent company will retain a majority stake.

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In Mali, however, the picture is more complicated. The Loulo-Gounkoto complex delivered a surprisingly strong 80,000 ounces for the quarter as operations recovered from a prolonged dispute with the government over the 2023 mining code. That restart occurred faster than expected, driven by improved efficiency in mining and processing.

Yet a fresh operational headache has emerged. Gounkoto Mining Services (GMS), the site’s key contractor, saw its contract expire and was not renewed. Barrick blamed insufficient investment and outdated infrastructure for the split. More than 600 employees have been handed layoff notices, and two of the complex’s major mines have been idle since last December. The company insists the regional security crisis played no role in GMS’s departure, and it is now hunting for a local partner to restart production by year-end.

On the corporate calendar, the next milestone is the North American spin-off, which will see Barrick list a separate entity holding its Canadian, U.S. and potentially other continental mines. The move is designed to narrow the valuation discount that has dogged the stock despite the gold rally. Barrick shares closed at CAD 62.82 on Tuesday, up roughly 10% over the prior week but still 13% shy of the 52-week high. Some valuation models peg the stock’s intrinsic worth near $48 per share, based on the enterprise value-to-EBITDA discount.

Copper remains a strategic pillar for the long haul. The Lumwana “Super Pit” expansion in Zambia is on schedule and the capital cost is expected to land at the low end of the guided range of roughly $2 billion, with first production from the upgrade slated for the first quarter of 2028. Further out, the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is targeting first copper output in 2029 and is expected to become a significant contributor.

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For the current quarter, Barrick expects gold output of between 730,000 and 770,000 ounces, with the full-year 2026 target holding at up to 3.25 million ounces. The second half of the year is seasonally expected to deliver stronger volumes. The buyback programme, the company said, will gain more weight if the recent production momentum in Mali proves stable.

The gold price tailwind is powerful, but Barrick’s capacity to juggle buybacks, dividends, project investment and a spin-off all at once will test the limits of its balance sheet. With Mali’s interrupted mines still down and a new contractor yet to be found, the next few months will reveal whether the operational recovery can keep pace with the financial fireworks.

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