Barrick’s Record Cash Flow Fuels a Pivot to North America Despite Deepening Mali Crisis

Barrick Mining served up a blockbuster earnings beat for the first quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.98 handily topping the $0.78 consensus estimate. The headline numbers dazzle — net profit of $1.60 billion on revenue of $5.22 billion — but beneath the surface, the company’s Malian operations are grinding lower. That tension between gold?price windfall and regional disruption is now driving a structural shift: a plan to spin off Barrick’s prime North American assets into a standalone unit by the end of 2026.

The vehicle, code?named “NewCo,” will house Barrick’s 61.5% stake in Nevada Gold Mines and its 60% interest in the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic. Together these assets churned out roughly two million ounces of gold last year — a core earnings pillar that management argues has been undervalued inside the broader portfolio. Nevada, in particular, stands as one of the world’s most favourable mining jurisdictions, with deep reserves and stable regulatory conditions. The timing is propitious: top producers realised nearly $4,900 per ounce of gold in the first quarter, fattening margins on high?grade operations.

Within that Nevada story, the Fourmile project takes centre stage. Exploration data points to a target of 32 to 34 million tonnes, and more importantly, grades of 15 to 16 grams per tonne — far above the industry average. Barrick envisions annual production of up to 750,000 ounces from Fourmile, with processing capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million tonnes per year. The company has already gained more than three months of drilling time thanks to winter safety measures, and plans to expand the programme through 2026. That would sharpen the production profile of the planned North American entity considerably.

The operational backdrop for the spin?off remains robust on this side of the Atlantic. Barrick delivered 719,000 ounces of gold in the first quarter, beating its own guidance range of 640,000 to 680,000 ounces and representing a 4% year?on?year increase. North America alone produced 457,000 ounces and contributed $1.55 billion in attributable EBITDA, yielding a 69% margin that was fuelled by strong performance from Nevada Gold Mines. All?in sustaining costs fell 4% to $1,708 per ounce — a welcome sign of discipline in an inflationary mining environment. Free cash flow reached $1.21 billion, while operating cash flow climbed to $2.55 billion.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

That free cash flow is already being deployed. Barrick has a $3 billion share buyback authorisation in place and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share. The stock closed at C$61.50 on a recent Wednesday, up 7.52% over the week and 152.48% over the past twelve months, though it slipped 2.51% on the day as traders took some profits.

But the Malian drag on the narrative remains stubborn. The Loulo?Gounkoto complex, a key asset, has struggled amid disruptions and a period of state?led transition management. Barrick has decided not to renew its contract with Gounkoto Mining Services in 2026 and has sent termination letters to more than 600 employees. A local provider is expected to replace GMS by the end of this year, and an open pit at Loulo?Gounkoto is set to restart. Two other pits, Baboto and Gara West, are already back in production with local operators. Even so, Mali’s total gold output has tumbled 23% this year, underscoring the risk that persists until stability returns.

Beyond the near?term challenges, Barrick is advancing longer?dated growth projects. The Lumwana copper expansion in Zambia is running slightly ahead of schedule, with first copper now expected by the end of the first quarter of 2028. Annual production there is slated to rise from 117,000 tonnes to 240,000 tonnes, giving the project far more weight in the company’s commodity mix. For the current year, Barrick maintains its gold guidance of 2.9 to 3.25 million ounces, with a higher second quarter expected, and copper guidance around 200,000 tonnes.

Barrick Mining at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Until the North American IPO lands late next year, investors will be watching two things closely: the continued delineation of NewCo’s asset base and any new data from Fourmile. Operationally, the wild card remains Mali. If Loulo?Gounkoto can stabilise, Barrick’s gold?price leverage will rest on a much cleaner foundation — giving the spin?off both a stronger parent and a fresher narrative.

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