BASF's Next Chapter: CoreShift Cost Cuts and the End of Buyback Support
05.06.2026 - 19:35:38 | boerse-global.de
BASF is approaching a critical inflection point. The €1.5bn share repurchase programme launched in November 2025 will expire at the end of this month, removing a visible buyer from the market. With that safety net gone, the chemical giant must rely on its own operational momentum to sustain the stock's recent gains.
The shares changed hands at €51.22 on the latest trade, up more than 14% since the start of the year. That comfortably exceeds the 200-day moving average — by roughly 8.55%, according to the last reading — though the stock has slipped below its 50-day average of €52.41, suggesting some near-term hesitation.
Management is responding with a deeper restructuring push. The CoreShift programme, spearheaded by Julia Raquet, targets a 20% reduction in cash-related fixed costs within the core business by 2029, using 2024 as the baseline. The overhaul covers four key segments: Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Nutrition & Care. CEO Markus Kamieth has already flagged further job cuts, though concrete numbers will only emerge after talks with employee representatives.
To sharpen the portfolio, BASF is divesting peripheral assets. The silicates business centred on DĂĽsseldorf will be sold to US-based PQ Corporation, with the deal expected to close in the second half of 2026. Financial terms have not been disclosed.
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All of this is playing out against a persistently tough environment for the German chemical sector. The industry association VCI points to high energy costs, heavy bureaucracy, and global disruption as ongoing drags. For 2026, pure chemical production is forecast to slip 1%, and with prices falling, industry revenues could drop 3.5%. BASF’s own first-quarter data underlines the pressure: seasonally adjusted output fell 2.8% from the previous quarter and was nearly 6% lower year-on-year, while capacity utilisation stagnated at 75.1%.
The pain is most acute at the Ludwigshafen headquarters, which recorded its fourth consecutive annual loss. Since the start of 2024, around 2,800 roles have been eliminated at the site.
Despite these headwinds, the group’s capital allocation framework remains ambitious. BASF has committed to at least €12bn in total shareholder returns by 2028, comprising roughly €8bn in dividends and €4bn in buybacks. The current programme is just the first tranche under that larger pledge. Since its launch, BASF has repurchased 27,835,549 shares, including 950,000 bought on 1 June, all of which will be cancelled. The reduction in the share count has provided a modest tailwind to earnings per share, a cushion that will fade when the buyback ends.
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Management is maintaining its full-year guidance, targeting EBITDA before special items of €6.2bn to €7.0bn. That forecast hinges on demand recovery, and the first quarter delivered €2.4bn, slightly below the prior-year level. Earnings per share, however, improved from €0.91 to €1.06.
The second-quarter report, due in July, will be the first real test of the post-buyback narrative. With the repurchase programme closed, the focus shifts squarely to operational delivery. CoreShift must prove it can offset the structural disadvantages of a high-cost home market while management juggles dividend commitments, balance-sheet reinforcement, and the planned IPO of the agricultural business in 2027. The story has changed: less financial engineering, more proof of industrial efficiency.
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